Political antagonism keeps Bosnia on ‘critical list’

Date: 16/05/1996

LUCK - a vital ingredient in turning ambitious projects into reality - seems to be evading the EU's efforts to help normalise life in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Central and East European Commissioner Hans van den Broek commented recently that Bosnia was “still in intensive care” - war criminals are still at large, Serbs and Muslims still may not move freely between the ethnically-divided towns and refugees have not returned.

To bring some political weight to the international efforts to rebuild the war-torn former Yugoslav republic, Commission President Jacques Santer and Italian Foreign Minister Susanna Agnelli had been planning a trip to Bosnia this weekend (16-18 May).

But the mission has fallen victim to the slings and arrows of Italian politics, with Rome requesting a postponement of the trip as Agnelli may be replaced on 18 May when new Prime Minister Romano Prodi and his cabinet begin work before their scheduled investiture four days later.

Santer aides say Rome has not yet suggested an alternative date. They deny heartily that the postponement has anything to do with EU governments' anger over Van Den Broek's recent comments that the Union must prepare to extend its military presence beyond the December pull-out date foreseen by the NATO-led international peacekeeping force (IFOR).

During a trip to Washington, the Commissioner broke a NATO allies' unwritten rule not to talk about what happens in Bosnia after the IFOR mandate runs out.

Although Van Den Broek's aides said the idea of putting together a European force to take over from IFOR was met with support in Washington, it infuriated member states. France and the UK are determined to keep the US engaged, and even German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel telephoned the Commissioner to tell him that the Union and the US “went in together and we come out together”.

EU governments are also worried about the upcoming Bosnian elections, and the growing influence of Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, who has undermined efforts to unite Bosnian Serbs with the republic's Muslims and Croats.

In an effort to sidestep Karadzic, the EU is considering opening an office in Banja Luca, headquarters of a moderate Serb leadership, rather than in Pale, the traditional seat of Bosnia's Serb government and Karadzic's home base.

Karadzic's intransigence has thrown another hurdle in the way of reconstruction efforts, as the EU and other donors are caught between the desire to help the Serb population and the need to punish its leaders. In principal, reconstruction aid is destined for all the former warring parties, but the EU, the US and International High Representative Carl Bildt are still withholding aid from Serbs.

Reconstruction should be under way, now that the Commission and the World Bank have raised 1.3 billion ecu for the effort from international donors. The Union and its member states combined have pledged almost 550 million ecu.

But Santer may have to wait a while before he can put his own imprimatur on the reconstruction effort (Van Den Broek ran the highly-publicised international donors' conference), and there is no guarantee that even the Commission president can do much to stem the political antagonism which is hampering efforts to get Bosnia 'out of hospital'.