Polish election unlikely to affect EU relations

Date: 09/11/1995

THE outcome of next week's second round of voting in the race for the Polish presidency is unlikely to have a profound impact on the country's relationship with the EU.

The two men battling it out for the job are, not surprisingly, intent on telling voters just how different they are. But Western officials and diplomats believe neither would substantially change the state of Poland's relations with the EU.

“The changes will be minimal, if at all,” commented one German diplomat.

Both Lech Walesa and Aleksander Kwasniewski, the two candidates facing a second round of presidential elections on 19 November after neither gathered 50&percent; of votes during the first round on 5 November, say they want to bring Poland into the EU and NATO.

Walesa says he is more qualified than his ex-communist rival to lead Poland into the western clubs and claims that Kwasniewski would give in too easily to Russian objections about NATO enlargement.

“The question is whether to go towards the East or the West,” he said recently in an article in the weekly journal Polityka.

Kwasniewski rejects that argument, insisting: “The West will accept any president who is democratically elected. I have good contacts there.”

Kwasniewski is no stranger in Germany, where he has met Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel annually for the past three years. Kinkel aides say Kwasniewski would not be likely to “try the parameters” of Polish foreign policy.

Kwasniewski also met Foreign Affairs Commissioner Hans van den Broek in Poland this spring and told the Commissioner he was committed to pursue the reform cause.

The European Commission, in charge of the negotiations which may eventually lead to Poland's membership of the Union, is staying out of pre-election politics.

“It is not up to us to give any signal to Polish voters,” said a Commission official. “For us it is not relevant who is in the chair, but that reforms are being pursued.”

Officials point to the fact that former communists, or 'socialists' as they now label themselves, have returned to power in many Central European states, pledging to carry through the reforms started by the first generation of post-war capitalists. So far, such power shifts have not altered their ties with the EU.

“At this stage, it is too early to draw the conclusion that the cause of reform is in danger,” said one.

But the fact that the 40-year-old Kwasniewski is younger than some of the ex-communists returned to power “does not mean he is more modern or more open-minded,” he added.

Walesa and his supporters accuse Kwasniewski of trying to consolidate power and stall economic reforms by centralising bank and local government power. Kwasniewski insists, however, that he does not want to undo reforms carried out by Walesa since 1989.

But political observers say that if Kwasniewski comes to power, there is nothing to stop the ex-communists from regaining control of political and economic structures.

In fact, the Polish president does not have a great deal of power as his right to veto legislation is often overridden by parliament, although Walesa is seeking more power for the role.

Analysts in Warsaw say the choice for voters is more one of style than substance, as the two candidates' policies vary only slightly.

If the winner does not carry through reform promises, the Commission has ways of fighting back, such as slowing down current negotiations or even withholding its approval of Poland's bid for EU membership.

“If we see reforms have not been implemented, it is impossible to imagine the country would be able to join the Union,” warned a Commission official.

In the first round of polling, Walesa won 33.1&percent; of the vote and Kwasniewski 35.1&percent;. But Walesa is now seen as the most likely victor of the second round, because voters who supported other candidates in the first ballot are more likely to switch their votes to Walesa due to the reluctance of many to support a former communist.