Poles vote on EU membership, June 2003

The weekend of 7-8 June gave the people of Poland the opportunity to vote on whether their country should join the European Union in May 2004.

Although the BBC commented that Poland was 'staking its future' on the vote, the result would only be legally binding if the turnout reached 50%. Anything less would lead to the membership decision being taken by Poland's Parliament. Turnout was low on Saturday, with only just over 17% of the country's 29 million registered voters going to the polls. Many more people voted on Sunday, however, after attending mass, and the Electoral Commission announced on Sunday night - reported the Financial Times - 'that 78 per cent of voters had backed accession', with a turnout of nearly 60%.

Although commentators seem persuaded that Parliament would back membership by the required two-thirds majority, some suggested it would involve considerable horse-trading, possibly including the resignation of Prime Minister Miller. The inability to gain popular support at the ballot box, despite opinion polls showing large majorities in favour of joining the European Union, would also be embarrassing for both Poland and the EU. (Opinion polls conducted by CBOS showed that 76% of voters favoured joining the Union).

With a population of 38 million people, Poland is much the largest of the 10 Acceding States. Some 20% of Poles are employed in agriculture, and over half the land is given over to it, although the sector contributes less than 5% to the country's GDP. The European Commission says that almost 25% of the population 'still lives on small, inefficient farms' and that the main agricultural products 'include grains, potatoes, sugar beets, fodder and livestock.'

The country's farmers are generally amongst those most opposed to EU membership, many fearing that their livelihoods will be lost to cheap imports from the West. The BBC reported that up to a million family farms 'could go under in the highly competitive agricultural market of the EU.'

Elderly people and those who are unemployed also seem to be generally against becoming part of the European Union. Unemployment in Poland has reached record levels, with 18% out of work, and people apparently fear that joining the euro-zone (which Poland, along with the other new Member States, will be bound to do at some point) would make the situation worse. The Government is already struggling with the problem of rising unemployment whilst simultaneously having to meet the European Union's strictures on public spending.

Support for joining the Union is highest amongst the better-off urban residents with - according to the Financial Times - 'the government, most mainstream politicians, business leaders and the media back[ing] the Yes campaign.' The FT pointed out, however, that Government pleas for a 'yes' vote 'have been hampered by the distrust of many Poles to instructions from Warsaw.' An intervention by the Pope, urging people to vote for EU membership may, however, have carried some weight in this traditionally Catholic country.

Even the former Communist leader Wojciech Jaruzelski supported membership, reported the BBC: 'It's a new reality and you have to take it into account. I took account of it by voting for Poland's entry into the EU.'

Five of the Acceding States have already approved EU membership: Malta, Slovenia, Hungary, Lithuania and the Slovak Republic. The next membership referendum will be held in the Czech Republic on 15-16 June. Estonia and Latvia will vote in September. There is no referendum currently scheduled for Cyprus.

Welcoming the early result, Poland's President, Aleksander Kwasniewski, said 'we have returned to the European family'. The final result is not expected until 1800 GMT on 9 June.

Links:

BBC News Online:
	09.06.03:	Poland on track for EU yes
	08.06.03:	Mixed feelings on Poland's decision day
	08.06.03:	Poles await mass turnout
	07.06.03:	Low turnout in Polish EU poll
	06.06.03:	Poland's euro vote conundrum
	05.06.03:	Poland weighs EU pros and cons
European Sources Online: Financial Times:
	07.06.03:	Poles' decision on EU biggest since fall of communism
Office of the Committee for European Integration:
	Referendum
European Sources Online: In Focus
	Malta says 'yes' to EU, March 2003
	Slovenes vote to join the EU and NATO, March 2003
	Hungary and Malta both say 'yes' to EU, but Poland vetoes EEA deal, April 2003
	Lithuanians vote to join EU, May 2003
	Slovak Republic votes overwhelmingly to join the EU, May 2003
European Sources Online: Topic Guides
	Enlargement of the European Union
	Information on European countries: Poland [Polska]

Eric Davies
Researcher
Compiled: Monday, 9 June 2003

78% of voters in the Polish referendum on accession to the EU, held on 7-8 June 2003, supported the country's proposed membership.