Poland’s minority government. Soldiering on

Date: 08/03/03

Poland's embattled prime minister has a fair chance of survival

“I WILL be no one's hostage,” promised a glum Leszek Miller, Poland's prime minister, after expelling his junior coalition partner, the Peasants' Party, from government on February 28th. The troublesome alliance between Mr Miller's europhile (albeit ex-communist) Democratic Left and the parochial Peasants collapsed after 16 months when the farmers teamed up with the opposition in parliament to vote against the government's flagship infrastructure bill.

This rebuff, coupled with the Peasants' wishy-washy support for Polish membership of the European Union, was enough to force Mr Miller's hand. But his government has a fair chance of survival, at least for a while, even with a minority of seats in parliament. And, no less vital for Mr Miller, he should still be able to win a referendum in June to let Poland join the EU next year.

While Poland's constitution shields a minority administration in the absence of a viable alternative, the government will have to scour the lower house for ad-hoc allies to pass its legislation. A plan unveiled last week by the finance minister, Grzegorz Kolodko, to streamline the public sector in preparation for EU entry will be tortuously hard to approve. If it falls by the wayside, the government might then be doomed.

But the outcome of the referendum in June is its biggest worry. Though the Peasants' leader, Jaroslaw Kalinowski, flew with Mr Miller and his team to Copenhagen last December to negotiate final details of Poland's entry into the EU, the party itself is reluctant to endorse a yes vote in the referendum before gaining cast-iron guarantees from the government for propping up farmers' incomes. Already eclipsed by its militant agrarian rival, Samoobrona (Self-Defence), the Peasants may split, with their radical wing throwing in its lot with Poland's anti-EU camp. That could give a big boost to the no campaign. Euro-tuned Polish nerves may start to jangle.