Plus ça Change Plus C’est la Même Chose: Consolidation of the AKP’s Predominance in the March 2014 Local Elections in Turkey

Abstract:

The March 2014 local elections, following the Gezi Park protests and allegations of government corruption, registered the highest turnout of any Turkish election since 1994. Despite strong resistance from conservative and liberal circles, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) held onto its constituency without losing much electoral support. Its losses were shared among the opposition parties, none of which emerged in a strong position to challenge the AKP. The rise of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), which came second in five out of 12 regions, suggested a change in the intra-opposition dynamics. The article presents a geographical and socio-economic analysis of the election, finding a significant generation gap. It also examines the electoral impact of economic perceptions and allegations of governmental graft. The election outcome is expected to shape both government and opposition strategies in the forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, potentially leading to another round of incumbent victories and increasing societal polarisation.