Persson gets a helping hand from

EU issues have scarcely featured in the campaigns for Sweden’s general elections on 17 September, perhaps because of, rather than despite, support for EU membership being low since the country joined the Union in 1995.

Support for the EU has been rising over the last 12 months, albeit from low levels. But both Prime Minister Göran Persson’s Social Democrats and his main rivals, the four-party centre-right coalition Alliance for Sweden, led by the Moderate Party’s Frederik Reinfeldt, have managed to minimise discussion of the country’s relations with the EU. Some observers believe this is because the last time Swedish voters focused on European issues, for the European Parliament elections in 2004, there was a rise in support for the June List, a Euro-critical group whose three MEPs include a former governor of the Swedish central bank and sit with the Independence and Democracy group.

The result of the election is too close to predict, with the Alliance slightly ahead of the Social Democrats in opinion polls until this week, when the election campaign was rocked by scandal as it was revealed that members of the Liberal People’s Party, part of the Alliance, had hacked into the internal computer network of Persson’s Social Democratic Party to read secret files about the party’s election strategies.

Liberal leader Lars Leijonborg at first denied any involvement from top party officials, blaming the party’s youth wing, but at a press conference on Tuesday (5 September) he admitted that both Johan Jakobsson, the Liberals’ party secretary and election strategist, and Niki Westerberg, the spokesperson, had known about the hacking since March. Both were forced to resign. Although Persson would never admit it in public, what has been dubbed by the media "Sweden’s Watergate", could boost his chances of staying prime minister.

Swedish voters, especially women and public sector workers, the mainstay of support for Göran Persson’s ruling Social Democrats, have fretted that joining the EU would threaten Sweden’s generous welfare state provision. In addition Swedes have unfavourably compared their own open and accountable system of government and public administration with what they see as the EU’s loose approach to public money and a lack of transparency.

Swedish public opinion is positive about the Union having a strong role in fighting terrorism and organised crime as well as dealing with asylum and immigration issues. Swedish voters also support the EU having an active part in foreign policy. These two issues have moved to the forefront of the Union’s agenda in recent years.

On a range of issues there is not a great deal of difference between Persson, who has been in government for 12 years, and his centre-right rival, Reinfeldt. Under Persson, Sweden has been a very strong champion of EU enlargement even when the country’s traditional collective bargaining procedures have come under pressure from companies wanting to employ workers from the Baltic states, as in the Vaxholm case.

Persson has also strongly supported the EU’s Lisbon Agenda of boosting competitiveness through reform. He took a strong line in last year’s negotiations on the EU budget, calling for a shift in spending priorities to research and development and away from farm support and regional aid for the old member states.

Gunnar Hökmark, Moderate Party MEP and head of the Swedish delegation in the centre-right EPP-ED, believes that if the opposition Alliance wins the election, there will be a difference in attitudes towards the Union from a new Swedish government. He agrees that EU issues have not been a feature of the election campaigns, saying that Persson’s position on EU has always been restrained by his need to maintain support in Parliament from the Left Party and the Green Party which have taken an increasingly anti-EU stance. This could even manifest itself in more outspoken support for a new constitutional treaty, he says, where Persson has had to be reserved.

Hökmark says that the main change will be a "stronger emphasis on improving competitiveness and deregulation". He cites issues such as the services directive where, he says, the Social Democrats played a "hindering role" but a new government would be "much stronger" in pursuing liberalisation.

While Persson has backed the Lisbon Agenda, a coalition government under Reinfeldt would focus on deregulation and privatising some of the state’s holdings.

Reinfeldt said during the campaign that "the state-dominated sector is too big. We should definitely not have state-owned companies in areas where we already have functioning markets". Companies where the government could sell off its share include Nordea bank, telecoms company TeliaSonera, stock exchange company OMX and the SAS airline.

Hökmark says a new government would also be enthusiastic about the Commission’s plan to open up the market for cross-border provision of health services. While Sweden’s education system has a large private sector element, the health system is still state-dominated and is unpopular for combining high costs with long waiting-lists and poor service. Allowing Swedes to travel abroad for operations would be popular.

Even if a new government is elected on 17 September, it is extremely unlikely that a Prime Minister Reinfeldt would call a second referendum on joining the euro, though it is part of Alliance election programme. Despite the modest increase in support for Sweden’s EU membership, Reinfeldt has no desire to risk repeating Persson’s defeat at the hands of voters in the 2003 referendum.

EU issues have scarcely featured in the campaigns for Sweden’s general elections on 17 September, perhaps because of, rather than despite, support for EU membership being low since the country joined the Union in 1995.