‘Pandora’s box’ fear over NATO pledge

Date: 20/09/01

By John Shelley and David Cronin

NATO diplomats from EU countries have warned that last week's pledge of united action following the terrorist strikes on America could open a 'Pandora's box' for the alliance.

The move to invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty marks the first time the alliance has promised action against terrorism and could have wide-ranging implications for the future of the institution, they say.

By accepting that under the terms of the article events in New York and Washington constitute an "attack" on the US - and hence on all alliance members - diplomats say the methods and the goals of the organisation will have to be extensively reviewed. "What happened is such blatant terrorism that it is difficult to argue that we shouldn't take action, but there are plenty of other cases which are not so clear cut," said one senior diplomat. "There are many sorts of terrorism out there and we are going to have to work out which we are trying to deal with and which we are not. One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter."

The developments came as the US ordered more than 100 combat aircraft to the Gulf as part of a deployment named 'Operation Infinite Justice'.

The deployment involved F-15 and F-16 fighters and B-1 bombers. They will join 150 planes and two aircraft carriers already in the region.

Meanwhile, the UK is sending 20,000 troops to Oman to take part in a long-planned exercise named Saif Sareea (Swift Sword) II. They will be supported by an aircraft carrier, GR4 and F3 Tornado and Harrier jets and several hundred armoured vehicles including Challenger 2 tanks.

The huge build-up taking place in the region is likely to fuel speculation of an imminent strike against Afghanistan and, possibly, Iraq.

However, two European policy analysts said yesterday there are good reasons to believe that an immediate military riposte to last week's atrocities in New York and Washington is unlikely.

Although US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has said repeatedly that several states could come under attack for allegedly harbouring terrorists, Mats Bardel from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies believes "there is a growing American realisation that simply firing off some cruise missiles is not going to work".

He contrasted Rumsfeld's hawkish statements with the more moderate choice of words used by Secterary of State Colin Powell, who has striven to build a broad-based international coalition against terrorism.

Powell's efforts to maintain relations with several Arab states are being interpreted partly as a bid to placate figures such as French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, who stressed last weekend that the international community must not use the fact that Islamic extremists are suspected of the outrages to declare a general war against Islam.

Despite the Union's resolve to show solidarity with the US, speculation is rising that the role of NATO's EU members in the military response will be limited to such areas as providing logistical support and sharing intelligence.

Another possibility is that the specially trained military units from the forces of some member states could build on the experience they have gained in apprehending indicted war criminals in the Balkans by similarly targeting key figures in Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network.

Britain's Special Air Service (SAS) is reported to already have soldiers on the ground in Pakistan, which borders bin Laden's adopted home of Afghanistan. If the Taliban refuses to hand over the Saudi dissident, the elite regiment would be well-equipped for making President Bush's desire to capture him - dead or alive - a reality.

Steven Everts from the Centre for European Reform think-tank said "one cause for optimism" is that strains in

US-Russia relations have diminished considerably in the past week. "This new room for cooperation is very important as Russia has intelligence on countries the US doesn't know well at all," he said.

He predicted that Tony Blair will have an essential role in calming transatlantic tensions. The UK premier is undertaking a whirlwind diplomatic tour in Europe and the US in a bid to build a consensus about the appropriate military response. "Blair should bolster European support for the US while encouraging an American response that will be effective - because it delivers greater security and not just revenge," added Everts.

Another aspect of Colin Powell's statesmanship that has not gone unnoticed on this side of the Atlantic is that it is at odds with the 'unilateralist' image often projected by the Bush administration. It would also appear that he is adamant that errors committed in previous anti-bin Laden onslaughts should not be repeated.

The mistakes particularly include then-President Bill Clinton's retaliation against the 1998 attacks on US embassies in Dar es Salaam and Nairobi.

While the resulting missile strikes on Afghanistan may have been against bin Laden-controlled training camps, the Sudanese pharmaceutical plant also targeted appears to have had, at most, a tenuous link with the world's most wanted man.

And as last week's events dramatically proved, the attacks did not make America any less vulnerable to terrorism.

NATO diplomats from EU countries have warned that the pledge of united action following the terrorist strikes on America could open a 'Pandora's box' for the alliance.