Over-stretched UK?is missing link

The fascination and fuss surrounding Tony Blair’s declining premiership - apparent in Brussels no less than in London - is obfuscating a looming reality: the UK is in military and political over-stretch. This may not seem to be a matter of grave concern to those outside the British Isles, but for the fact that the UK is one of the mainstays of the EU foreign and military policies. Events may be making that role impossible.

The first signs of this new reality were evident during the Lebanon crisis this summer. Political attention was focused as ever on Blair and his decision to go along apparently unquestioningly with the US policy of not demanding an immediate ceasefire. But as the furore was unfolding, no one noticed that Britain was effectively sidelined in the hard core international negotiations that took place in the UN which ultimately produced Security Council Resolution 1701: it was a joint US-French led effort.

This was not surprising, since Britain could not put its money where its mouth is - or boots on the ground, in this case. With 4,500 troops in Afghanistan, 7,500 in Iraq and several thousand more spread around the world in various peacekeeping commitments, it has simply run out of forces. Worse still, given the first two, especially Afghanistan, are long-term commitments - it does not seem likely the UK will be able to have any more available for the coming three to five years.

This is not good news for the EU: it needs the UK active in both the CFSP (Common Foreign and Security Policy) and the ESDP (European Security and Defence Policy), as a leader, as a balance to other nations, especially France, and as a strong military force.

The ESDP has always been jointly led by the UK and France - and for good reason. These are the two EU nations with the largest and best equipped militaries, and with past experience of empire in deploying their forces and using force. While a Union endeavour, the biggest breakthroughs in the ESDP evolution have been made in tandem by the two, beginning with the St Malo agreement in 1998.

More pragmatically, over the past eight years it has usually been British or French military capabilities that have led the way in the EU’s interventions, with other states following them and serving under their command. The current EU mission in the Congo is led for the first time by Germany and it was effectively, and correctly, corralled into that role by a number of other EU states, including the UK and France.

It is no secret that the two do not agree on a number of issues, not least over the relative capabilities of NATO and the EU. The UK, as part of its focus on a transatlantic dialogue, has wished to keep NATO viable while also developing the ESDP. France, ever suspicious of the US, has sought to develop the ESDP at the expense of NATO. The very public disagreements over the Iraq war also took their toll on the ability of the two to make policy together. In recent years this has meant France has led the way in blocking NATO from getting too involved in Iraq - there is only a training mission, mostly mounted in Europe. And the UK has resisted any attempts for the EU to undertake broader military missions.

But the UK may no longer be able to keep up its side of the balancing act in either organisation: without its military might, and will, Britain’s words stand for a lot less (a fact the US may notice too). In the EU this may mean a resurgence of French leadership, especially once Chirac goes; or else another case of EU collapse: without the double leadership the house of cards could fall. Either way, the Union may end up a casualty of British over-stretch.

• Ilana Bet-El is an academic, author and policy adviser based in Brussels

The fascination and fuss surrounding Tony Blair’s declining premiership - apparent in Brussels no less than in London - is obfuscating a looming reality: the UK is in military and political over-stretch. This may not seem to be a matter of grave concern to those outside the British Isles, but for the fact that the UK is one of the mainstays of the EU foreign and military policies. Events may be making that role impossible.