Optimism over Russian missile deal with Cyprus

Date: 08/10/1998

By Simon Taylor

GREEK Prime Minister Costas Simitis will fly to the Turkish resort of Antalya next week amid rising hopes that the tension over Cyprus' planned deployment of Russian-made S-300 missiles could soon be eased.

Although the issue is not officially on the agenda for the meeting of leaders of south eastern European countries next Monday (12 October), diplomats are stepping up their behind-the-scenes efforts to persuade Cyprus not to take possession of the missiles.

Turkey has warned that it would treat any move to deploy the weapons as an act of war and has threatened to destroy them on the ground.

Ankara maintains the missiles will pose a threat to its security, claiming that they will have a wide enough range to reach aircraft flying over the Turkish mainland. But Cyprus insists that they will only play a defensive role in protecting the Greek community in the southern part of the island from possible airborne attack.

Hopes of finding a solution acceptable to both sides have been strengthened recently thanks to diplomatic efforts by the US and other western powers.

Although the US state department's special coordinator on Cyprus Thomas Miller has so far failed to broker an acceptable deal on the missiles, the US is maintaining pressure on Nicosia not to deploy them.

One option which may form the basis of a face-saving deal for both parties would be to agree a flight ban on military aircraft, something which the UK has been pushing for and which Ankara could live with.

This would offer a way for Nicosia to claim that it had addressed fears about the threat of airborne attack, while allowing Ankara to avoid charges at home that it had been pushed around by a small island.

Optimism has also been bolstered by the more moderate tone now being adopted by both Nicosia and Ankara. The strident language used by both sides until recently made it more difficult to find a way out of the impasse, as neither side was prepared to be seen to back down.

Greece has also taken a more hands-off approach to the dispute, although Athens is committed under its mutual defence pact with Cyprus to intervene if the Mediterranean island is attacked. A Greek spokesman in Brussels said this week that it was up to Nicosia to decide whether to deploy the missiles, although Athens "supported the right of a sovereign nation to deploy defensive weapons".

But even if the missiles dispute is resolved without the two sides coming to blows, observers predict that Cyprus' bid to join the EU could face serious hurdles next year as the negotiations move into a more serious phase.

Dr James Ker-Lindsay, expert on Greek and Turkish relations at the Royal United Services Institute in London, predicts that France - and possibly Spain and Italy - will oppose progress on Cyprus' bid for EU membership until the issue of the island's divided status is resolved.

Opposing Cyprus' bid on purely political grounds would risk jeopardising the entire enlargement process because the EU has made a commitment, at Athens' insistence, that the Cypriot bid for full Union membership will be treated in parallel with the other leading applicants.

But Dr Ker-Lindsay believes that existing member states could use problems connected with Cyprus' banking sector as a justification for holding up Nicosia's application. The island offers many tax advantages as an offshore banking centre which will probably have to be wound up before it can join the EU.

Efforts to settle the island's status have so far met with failure. A recent attempt by the leader of the Turkish Cypriot community Rauf Denktash to achieve a breakthrough by tabling proposals for a two-community confederation was bluntly rejected by Athens and Nicosia.

And while Greece argues that letting Cyprus into the Union would offer a way out of the current diplomatic impasse, analysts fear that it could lead to a further deterioration of relations with Ankara, already smarting from its perceived exclusion from the ranks of potential EU candidates at last December's Luxembourg summit.