One money, one cycle? Making Monetary Union a smoother ride

In recent years the euro area has shown less resilience to the negative and largely OECD-wide common shocks than the English-speaking countries, but most of the smaller euro area countries have fared better than the large ones. This paper reviews policy issues that are important in fostering a speedy adjustment to shocks. We argue that the small countries are well placed to adjust swiftly to asymmetric shocks, because they are well integrated with the rest of the area. An activist fiscal policy is not needed and also not powerful enough to smooth the cycle. However, asset bubbles are a cause of concern as their limited weight means that the common monetary policy is more likely to be out of line with their cyclical position. Large countries are less well placed to cope with shocks and sluggish adjustment can be expected. Reforms should focus on raising trade linkages via the completion of the single market, on improving wage and price flexibility and on making their housing markets more responsive to changes in monetary policy. In principle, a more activist fiscal policy could help in the large countries, but the institutional framework has so far not ensured an anti-cyclical stance over the cycle.