Norway’s election. Back to the left

An oil-rich country tilts leftwards

FOUR years ago Norway's Labour Party suffered its worst election defeat since 1924. Yet the party, now led by Jens Stoltenberg, won the election on September 12th. Mr Stoltenberg will now form the country's first majority government in two decades. He and his two allied parties romped home with 87 of the parliament's 169 seats among them, giving him a comfortable majority over the outgoing centre-right coalition led by Kjell Magne Bondevik.

Mr Stoltenberg served a brief stint as prime minister five years ago. Yet the real question is not why he won, but why Mr Bondevik lost. Unemployment is low, wages are high, education is free and the United Nations has once again ranked Norway as the best country in which to live. This enviable lifestyle is largely bankrolled by North Sea oil, the proceeds of which are stashed away in a Petroleum Fund now worth NKr1.2 trillion ($190 billion), and rising fast. Non-oil business is also booming: a survey of some 114,000 non-oil companies shows an average 43.9% increase in profits.

Yet many of Norway's 3.4m-odd voters do not share the view that they live in nirvana. With all that oil wealth, they cannot understand why the welfare system has so many defects. There is a shortage of kindergartens, hospitals are understaffed, taxes are high, petrol costs as much as in non-oil countries and pensioners have problems making ends meet. A groundswell of such discontent swung the election Mr Stoltenberg's way. He made a string of lavish promises to cut child-care costs, guarantee kindergarten places, extend maternity and paternity leave and even hand out free fruit to schoolchildren.

It is easy to exaggerate Norway's leftward swing, however. Indeed, overall the right actually won more votes but fewer seats. A crucial factor was that Carl Hagen, the populist leader of the far right Progress Party, had his best ever election, taking his party's representation from 26 seats to 38 to become the second-biggest in parliament. Mr Hagen held the balance of power in the outgoing parliament and used it to full effect to squeeze concessions from the government. He has now lost that position.

Even so, over the next few weeks, Mr Stoltenberg may find it hard to form a coherent government. Besides divvying up cabinet posts, his three-party coalition must find common ground on some key policies. Labour is pro-European Union, its two partners are Europhobes. Labour favours gas-fired power generation, the others fret about pollution. Despite his election promises, Mr Stoltenberg is cautious about raiding the Petroleum Fund. Mr Bondevik, retired from the limelight to his rocking chair, will surely be praying for an unholy falling-out among the three new friends that might yet let the centre-right back in.

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