No guarantee of united front on Iraq

Date: 16/01/03

By David Cronin

Opposition to a US-led attack on Iraq is high in Greece - but the EU presidency is aware of the Union's need to speak with one voice.

FINDING a Greek who believes bombs should rain down on Baghdad seems about as difficult as finding a camel at the North Pole.

Greece was the EU country most opposed to NATO's bombardment of Serbia in 1999. It seems likely it will register the same disquiet should the US launch a military offensive against Iraq.

The big difference this time is that the country holds the Union's presidency and wants to present a single message on behalf of its 15 member states.

"The Greek people - as in the case of Yugoslavia - demonstrate pacifist views," said Mikalis Chrysochoidis, the minister for public order. "They are certainly against war."

Fear is one of the main factors behind the sentiment: a second Gulf War would lead to a dramatic rise in the numbers of Iraqis seeking refuge in Greece and this would strain national finances.

Greece is already one of the main destinations for asylum-seekers from Iraq, especially Kurds from northern Iraq, where more than 60 of the population lives in dire poverty. The Kurds frequently enter Greece from Evros on its border with Turkey, after a perilous voyage on overcrowded and dilapidated boats.

The number of successful asylum bids is minuscule. In January-November 2001, just nine Iraqis were accorded refugee status. A further 12 were given permission to remain in the country for a year on humanitarian grounds. But 3,601 Iraqi asylum-seekers had their requests turned down.

However, they haven't been sent home. Many end up destitute or depend on charities for survival.

In October last, Nikos Tsamados, head of the foreign ministry's International Development Cooperation Service, said his colleagues were "feverishly working" on a blueprint for coping with a refugee crisis in the event of a war.

State agencies were asked to prepare for the increased workload a large influx of refugees would cause.

But not everybody is predicting a huge rise in refugee numbers. Speaking to Athens News, Theo Rosenberg, of relief agency Greek Doctors of the World, said it is more probable that Iraqis displaced by war will go to their country's immediate neighbours. The UN's High Commission for Refugees has forecast that some 60,000 could seek shelter in Jordan.

The Greek presidency is looking at several scenarios which could emerge in the coming weeks or months.

The three main ones are:

1. The UN's chief weapons inspector Hans Blix will say he has definitive proof there are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq;
2. Blix declares he needs more time for investigations when he presents a progress report towards the end of this month;
3. He finds the elusive "smoking guns" which the Bush administration accuses Baghdad of possessing.

Blix may give an indication of what his final report will say when he meets top EU diplomats during his visit to Brussels today (16 January).

Regardless of the conclusions which Blix reaches, the Greeks want the EU to present a united front. In an interview last weekend, Foreign Minister George Papandreou insisted a consensus has developed among the Union's governments; all agree that the UN's Security Council is the appropriate forum for handling the Iraqi dossier.

But Papandreou added he could not guarantee the 15 states will continue to sing in harmony.

A source close to Papandreou said Iraq is dominating the presidency's work at the moment and that it is considered a litmus test for efforts to build a single foreign policy.

There is much nervousness that the current unity will unravel. One constant worry is that Britain will back a US-led strike, which many of its EU partners do not consider justified or wise.

Any splits could be accentuated by the fact the EU now has four members on the Security Council - Germany and Spain are there alongside permanent members Britain and France. Bickering between them could sour the atmosphere at both UN and EU gatherings.

Romano Prodi, the European Commission president, said last Friday (10 January) that his colleagues have been discussing a contingency plan for boosting emergency aid to Iraq if war erupts. The Commission's humanitarian office, ECHO, is already a leading donor to the country, although its work has been hindered by Saddam.

For example, Baghdad dithered for many months in 2001 before approving a request for visas to high-level ECHO officials.

About 70 of the Iraqi population currently depends on food rations and that percentage will surely rise in a war situation. ECHO has given €157 million to Iraq since 1992, with €13 million allocated to it in 2001 and €15 million this year.

Health, water and sanitation have been the major areas of expenditure.

With so many different countries already competing for the very limited pot that is EU external aid, it is easy to see why the Commission is hoping it won't have to foot the bill for feeding and rebuilding an Iraq devastated by American missiles.

Opposition to a US-led attack on Iraq is high in Greece - but the EU presidency is aware of the European Union's need to speak with one voice.