Nice vote jitters spoil the party for accession states

Date: 10/10/02

By David Cronin

NERVES are jangling at the European Commission at the prospect of an Irish rejection of the Nice treaty in a little over a week's time - just as the executive confirmed it is ready to welcome ten new countries into the Union at the beginning of 2004.

The uncertainty took the shine off the announcement that Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,

Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia are set to come into the fold.

At a press conference following publication of the executive's accession strategy paper yesterday (9 October), Commission head Romano Prodi and Günter Verheugen, the enlargement commissioner, were bombarded with questions about what will happen if Ireland says 'No'.

The pair, along with Parliament President Pat Cox, for the most part avoided giving a direct response, other than expressing their hope and belief that the vote would be positive. Prodi said accession countries should be breaking open the Champagne.

However, towards the close of the conference, Verheugen admitted: 'If the Treaty of Nice is rejected in Ireland again, I do not know how we can continue with enlargement and I do not know whether we can continue.'

His candour revealed the extent of the huge uncertainty within the corridors of the Commission, despite reports that a 'Plan B' strategy has been worked out (see Page 16).

In an emotionally charged appeal, Cox had moments earlier called on his Irish compatriots to vote 'Yes' on 19 October 'to remove one of the last bricks from the Berlin Wall' and ensure Europe's reunification.

The Cork MEP said that December's Copenhagen summit of EU leaders offered a 'rendezvous with an unparalleled act of reconciliation on our continent'. Accession talks with ten prospective new member states are due to be concluded at that gathering.

But Cox predicted that such a historic achievement could be shelved if the 'No' side win. Nice, he pointed out, has been ratified by all existing EU states bar his own. 'If, in the end, one state does not ratify the Nice treaty, it is dead,' he added.

Suggesting that the timetable for enlargement would have to be altered in that event, he said one possibility is that the future of Europe Convention would have to address the institutional issues left open by Nice's burial. That process could take some years to complete.

Yet Cox said his political 'instinct' was that the referendum would be carried. He had spoken to many previously wavering voters who said they now intended to mark a 'Yes' on their ballot papers.

His claims appear to be supported by opinion poll results yesterday in Dublin. These suggest the proportion of Ireland's electorate opting for a 'Yes' has risen from 29 to 44 in the past few weeks. While the number of 'Nos' has increased too - from 19 to 22 - the number of undecided voters has fallen markedly, according to the survey - from 44 to 27.

Although there will be delight for the ten countries due to be given the green light at Copenhagen, there was some disappointment for Romania and Bulgaria. The two laggards in the enlargement talks had wanted the Commission to give them a firm 'indicative date' for when they could join the EU.

Yet the final version of the enlargement strategy paper merely states that the Union 'will strongly support the two countries in achieving this objective'. An earlier draft had stated that their progress over the last year 'leads the Commission to conclude that the year 2007 chosen by the two countries should be envisaged as an indicative date'. The difference is subtle, but will be seen as a setback in Sofia and Bucharest.

Meanwhile, the section on Turkey slams its ban on Islamic politician Recep Tayyip Erdogan from taking part in the 3 November general election. Yet Ankara does win some praise for abolishing the death penalty in peacetime.

The paper also suggests a 'safeguard clause' be inserted in the treaty on the accession of the ten new states. Currently being discussed by officials at the Council, this clause is designed to allow 'protective measures' be taken if problems arise in how any of these countries adapt to EU laws on the internal market, food safety, justice and home affairs.

The prospect of an Irish rejection of the Nice Treaty in the country's referendum on 19 October 2002 is causing anxiety at the European Commission and amongst the 10 candidate countries who were given the go ahead on 9 October 2002 to join the EU in 2004.

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