NATO towards double enlargement: The case of the Balkans

Abstract:

The major outcome of European security affairs over the past decade has been to leave NATO in a position of reinvigorated primacy vis-à-vis all actual or potential contenders. This outcome can ultimately be traced to the interplay of two key factors: (a) General fear of ad hoc, or informal, coalitions and unproven institutions to cope with the new challenges of additional integration as well as intervention towards Eastern Europe; and (b) an increasingly obvious lack of capable alternatives to NATO in the face of this central, two-fold task. Pursuing its own 'double enlargement' in accordance with this new task, NATO has successfully exploited this 'window of opportunity' to the benefit of its own status and, so far, of the European order as a whole. A political success story in view of the near pacification of the Balkans and the ongoing admission of new members - in future especially from south-eastern Europe - double enlargement still holds some strategic risks. These mainly revolve around a recovered Russia in its relations with its western neighbours and, eventually, with the greater NATO itself.