Mood music improves as Bush dances delicately

By Andrew Beatty

Date: 24/02/05

In a judiciously choreographed visit to Brussels this week US President George W. Bush and European leaders skirted many of the difficult issues on the global agenda.

In the hope of sustaining the transatlantic détente, sensitivities over Iran, China and climate change were carefully shielded behind a 'unity of purpose'.

Although Bush opened his remarks to European leaders with an assertion that Washington favours a strong Europe - a change from what one former US ambassador to Brussels called a "divide and conquer" strategy of the first Bush administration - diplomats are cautiously saying wait and see.

The mood was certainly better than at past summits. Using self-deprecating humour and name-dropping Camus, Leibnitz and Voltaire, Bush avoided a re-run of his disastrous first meeting with EU leaders in 2001.

But little of Tuesday's meeting, aside from the symbolism and tone, was actually about transatlantic relations, rather it was about how to reconcile different views of dealing with the problems of the day.

On Iran, the declared EU-US "unity of purpose" is perhaps better termed 'unity in theory' - despite what Europeans would see as progressive rhetoric from Bush.

In private, Bush described the idea of attacking Iran as "a complete and utter absurdity", according to those present, with none of the caveats that he applies in public.

In advance of the forthcoming June elections which will ratchet up the levels of rhetoric coming from the Islamic Republic, European diplomats welcomed the comments. Apart from that, the discussion on Iran was a set-piece affair.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder - representing one of the EU-3 currently in discussions with Tehran - explained the thinking behind the EU's engagement with Iran, Bush did likewise for the US position, but there was no attempt to forge thesis and antithesis into synthesis. Simply put, the divisions remain.

Brussels still sees the emergence of a more responsible and democratic Iran as a welcome by-product of nuclear talks and will be content to see a slightly better behaved administration with no nuclear weapons at the end of talks.

Not so for Washington. Bush's comments during the meeting pointed to a concern about further US engagement legitimising the Iranian government and offered little prospect of the US joining the talks.

Nearly 26 years since the Islamic revolution and 20 years since the Iran-Contra affair the US's primary concern remains to get the clerics out of government.

"There are some in Washington who are not so concerned about Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, as long as it is not under the current regime," said one European diplomat after the meeting.

"I am not saying this is the mainstream view, but it is there."

On the EU's decision to lift its arms embargo against China, both sides also offered their views.

In his intervention Bush made it clear that, whatever his feelings about the lifting of a ban, it is Congress that the EU will eventually have to convince.

This is the same Congress that recently threatened to ban hi-tech military exports to Europe and whose chair of international relations described a strengthened EU code of conduct on arms exports as "mortuary cosmetics" in the context of lifting the China arms ban.

On climate change too both sides exchanged views with little meeting of minds. Göran Persson, the Swedish prime minister, said simply that he did not agree with Bush on Kyoto adding that this was well known.

All seated around the table accepted that the US will not sign this Kyoto Protocol and that both sides would now look towards a compromise post-2012 regime.

Bush made his view clear. He made much of ensuring that India and China can take part in climate change initiatives while continuing their seemingly boundless economic growth, citing clean coal and nuclear energy as possible steps forward.

But some European leaders saw this as a way of neutralising any possible deal, ensuring that growth is the focus of any agreement rather than the main issue at hand, the heating of the planet.

For all the listening, the EU and US positions remain as far apart on these issues as they were before the visit.

The balance between realism and idealism in the second Bush administration has not yet found its final resting-place which is likely to determine how much Bush listens to the "good advice" he says he now gets from Europe.

As Bush said wryly at the outset of his Concert Noble speech: "Secretary Rice told me I should be a realist". Will he take this advice?

"If you look at the scale of the challenges ahead - like terrorism, poverty - one thing is certain: these are not challenges that any nation can tackle alone even working together, it's not sure that we will solve these problems."

• Commission President José Manuel Barroso

"Bush's visit makes us hopeful that Washington will develop a better perception of the EU."

• German Green MEP Angelika Beer

"I always wanted to make history, but I don't think that this time is the moment for doing so."

• Council President and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker

"From today the will to reinforce the bridges between Europe and the United States increased. And so that those bridges are solid, there need to be two balanced pillars on each side of the Atlantic."

• Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

"We have agreed that we are not going to constantly emphasise where we're not agreeing."

• German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder

"I sensed that the United States has become aware of the reality of Europe more than it probably was before."

• French President Jacques Chirac

"Bush go home."

• Protesters gathered near the summit site in Brussels

"This is an important step not only in reviving Euro-Atlantic dialogue, but also in terms of raising the EU's international profile in relation to the United States."

• EPP-ED Group chairman Hans-Gert Pöttering

"The European Union is an area of peace and stability that more and more countries seek to join. The US, on the other hand, has been losing friends and meeting more and more resistance on a global scale. The time has come for Europe to exert itself and claim its place as a global player that is becoming a civil superpower."

• Socialist MEPs Martin Schulz and Jan Marinus Wiersma in a joint statement

Review of a visit of US President, George W. Bush, to the European Union, 22 February 2005.

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