Montenegro to decide on independence

By Tim Judah

Date: 18/05/06

Montenegrins will vote in a referendum on independence from Serbia on Sunday (21 May) in a poll that will be keenly observed in Brussels. The EU has played a key role in organising the terms of the referendum and there are fears of a crisis unless the vote produces a clear result.

If there is a decisive vote in favour of independence, it will mark the demise of the so-called state union of Serbia and Montenegro. Serbia (without Kosovo) has a population of 7.5 million while Montenegro has a population of 672,000. The state union was formed in 2003 following intense diplomatic pressure from Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy chief.

When a referendum was called on independence earlier this year, supporters of the union with Serbia threatened a boycott. Fearing that this might result in major instability, Solana asked Miroslav Lajcak, the political director of the Slovak foreign ministry, to negotiate the terms of the poll.

The deal negotiated by Lajcak and endorsed by the EU, would give independence only if 55% of those voting are in favour of it. The pro-independence government of Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic said it was forced to accept this threshold because the EU said that, if it did not, it would block monitoring of the referendum by the OSCE, which would undermine its credibility.

But the Montenegrins are highly divided on the issue. Opinion polls suggest that a slim majority will vote in favour of independence but some polls put support at just below 55% with others putting it just above.

Miodrag Vlahovic, Montenegro's foreign minister, has said that even if there is one vote above 50% in favour of independence then Montenegro will leave all joint institutions with Serbia, so provoking a major crisis and the possible collapse of the state.

On Tuesday (17 May) Lajcak demanded that Montenegrins behave in a "responsible" manner, adding that he had the impression that they were "aware of the gravity of the moment and their responsibility to their people, Europe and the international community".

Preview of the referendum in Montenegro on 21 May 2006 on the country's independence from Serbia. The EU played a key role in organising the terms of the referendum and there were fears of a crisis unless the vote was to produce a clear result. A vote for independence would mean the breakup of the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, created in 2003.

European Commission: DG Enlargement: Countries of the Western Balkans: Serbia and Montenegro http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/potential-candidates/serbia/index_en.htm

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