Montenegro: Semi-independent

Date: 10/04/04

A republic grappling with the issue of independence

THE pro-independence group around Milo Djukanovic, Montenegro's prime minister, might take satisfaction from Serbia's resurgent nationalism, for it must suggest to the tiny republic's 650,000 people that cutting ties to Serbia is their only salvation. Yet they have greeted Serbia's problems with alarm.

Montenegro was firmly yoked to Serbia until then-President Djukanovic broke with Serbia's nationalist strongman, Slobodan Milosevic, in 1997. Mr Djukanovic promptly took his party into the pro-independence camp. Montenegrins have since been divided over whether to go it alone. With demands for independence coming from Kosovo, a province of Serbia under international control, the European Union cajoled Montenegro into a loose “state union” with Serbia in February 2003. But the deal included the option of a referendum on independence after three years.

Since then Mr Djukanovic and his allies have survived scandal and economic hardship. Two years ago over half the voters backed pro-independence parties. But support for independence has since flagged. The most recent polls show 41% supporting independence, 39% against and 20% undecided. Pro-independence groups now fear being dragged down with Serbia. Dragisa Burzan, Montenegro's foreign minister, claims that being forced by the EU to harmonise his country's economy with Serbia's has caused “huge damage financially”. Now it will suffer “political damage”, because of Serbia's failure to co-operate fully with the war-crimes tribunal in The Hague.

Politics in Montenegro has long focused on independence. But another force has emerged. Nebojsa Medojevic, head of a think-tank called the Group for Changes (GZP), says independence should be put aside while a government of technocrats unites to halt the slide in living standards. He says Montenegrins are being cheated by crony privatisations, and that good economic statistics are “fake” or at best half-truths.

The GZP is not yet a political party, but it models itself on G17 Plus in Serbia, which began as a think-tank but is now in government. Recent polls show the GZP as a strong third-party contender. Milka Tadic, an observer at Monitor magazine, says it might win support from voters disaffected with pro- and anti-independence parties; and it might benefit from hostility to Russian businesses trying to buy privatised companies. But Srdjan Darmanovic, a political analyst, plays down the GZP's prospects. He thinks it will lose support from one side or the other, as it will have to declare publicly if it backs independence. Mr Medojevic says he does - but, like St Augustine, not yet.

A republic grappling with the issue of independence.

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/potential-candidates/serbia/index_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/potential-candidates/serbia/index_en.htm

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