Moldova’s election: Reds in, reds out

The Communists win, but look west

NOW for the hard part. After winning re-election on March 6th, with 46% of the vote, enough for a workable but reduced parliamentary majority, the Communist Party of Moldova has four more years to wrestle with the crushing problems of Europe's poorest country. The Communists hope the European Union will help. Previously pro-Russian, they have fallen out with Moscow, and talk now of joining the prosperous West.

Europe should lend a hand. Moldova is sandwiched between Romania, which will join the EU in two or three years' time, and Ukraine, which, if it sticks to its present pro-western course, will surely become a candidate for EU membership. Moldova can scarcely be left out. If it were, even more Moldovans would take matters into their own hands. Poverty already drives almost 600,000 of them, roughly 40% of the economically active population, to seek work abroad, perhaps half in the EU and half in either Russia or Ukraine.

Yet if it is to become a normal country, Moldova must first get rid of the Russian-sponsored separatist regime that has controlled Transdniestria, an eastern province bordering Ukraine, since fighting and winning a short war of secession in 1992. Some of Transdniestria's economy is based on Soviet-era heavy industy, but the rest is mostly smuggling and arms-trading via Ukraine.

Negotiations to get Russian troops out of Transdniestria have been going on for years between Russia, Ukraine and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, acting as “mediators”, plus the Moldovan government and the Transdniestrian rebels. Since Russia is a member of the OSCE, and until last year had the other parties in its pocket, it could in practice do what it liked. It held out for a deal legitimising and entrenching the Transdniestrian regime.

With Moldova and Ukraine both now looking westward, and Moldova's government calling openly on Russia to withdraw, the EU may now have to get more involved. Most EU members want to avoid new problems with Russia: relations are prickly enough already. But an attempt to partition a European country is not something that is easy to ignore.