Moldova. Wobbling ahead

Date: 05/11/05

The rogue republic of Transdniestria and its allies

DEPENDING on how you look at it, the self-proclaimed republic of Transdniestria is a mafia-run statelet that launders billions of dollars and sells weapons to terrorists and rogue states, or a refuge for Russian-speakers who would otherwise face persecution. The West wants the breakaway enclave, which is in theory part of Moldova, democratised and demilitarised. That would clean up business and help to stabilise one of Europe's poorest countries.

It would also mean sending home a rump force of Russian soldiers whose ostensible task is peacekeeping, following Transdniestria's armed getaway from Moldova in 1992. They guard a gigantic Soviet-era arms dump too, but their main job is to prop up the autocratic regime of Transdniestria's leader, Igor Smirnov. His other main prop is the state security ministry, run by formidable ex-KGB types closely linked to Russia.

Neither side can unfreeze this conflict. Russia has not quite managed to bully Moldova into accepting a confederation; and the West, only fitfully attentive, and handicapped by Moldova's erratic behaviour, cannot dislodge the regime in Transdniestria. Involvement by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has been obstructed by Russia. Moldovan and other officials say they are disappointed by Ukrainian shilly-shallying, and complain that neither Britain, as current president of the European Union, nor America, will raise the issue with Russia.

Now new talks have started between the two sides, plus five outsiders: Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE, America and the EU. So far the results have been modest: an agreement to ask the OSCE to draw up plans for a mission to look at democratisation. One plan, privately endorsed by Russia and Ukraine with some EU backing, is to aim for simultaneous elections in both Moldova and Transdniestria late next year. In the meantime, Transdniestria is holding its own election on December 11th. The West will not send observers, saying that the poll is neither free nor fair. But it may be a chance to stoke up local opposition to Mr Smirnov.

The real problem is that Russia is pursuing two policies. The official foreign-ministry line is to go along with the talks. The other approach, run from the Kremlin, is to back Transdniestria and similar places as examples of "multiculturalism" - meaning that they provide special status for Russian-speaking or Russia-oriented minorities. Other bits of the former empire, such as the Baltic states and the Caucasus, think that has an ominous ring.

OSCE: Moldova http://www.osce.org/moldova/

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