Moderate victory in Serbia could ease Kosovo solution

The EU is throwing its weight behind Serbia’s pro-EU parties ahead of elections in ten days’ time, in the hope of a result that will make a solution to Kosovo’s final status easier to reach.

Parliamentary elections taking place on 21 January are seen as a contest between hard-line radicals opposed to Kosovo’s independence and moderates who may be more inclined to find a negotiated solution.

EU member states recently agreed a set of common messages to take to the Serbian voters, which they hope will bolster reformers such as President Boris Tadic´ and his Democratic Party (SD).

After the elections, the United Nations’ special envoy Marti Ahtisaari will publish his proposals on Kosovo’s future status, although no date has yet been set. He is expected to recommend Kosovo be given substantial sovereignty, despite strong opposition from the current Serbian government.

Although Kosovo has been a UN protectorate for the last eight years, Belgrade says it remains an essential part of Serbia.

EU diplomats are warning that the elections will be crucial in deciding the success of efforts to end the province’s status as a UN protectorate in early 2007, as planned.

But there are fears that a solution imposed by the UN Security Council could drive Serbia further away from the EU.

Many in the EU now hope a victory for the moderates could dampen Serbia’s hard-line opposition to independence, or at least stop Serbia from actively opposing a solution.

"We have to wait for the elections and to hope for a good result from the democratic and moderate forces," said one EU diplomat.

But there appears to be little consensus in the EU about the benefits of a return to talks with a new Serbian government.

"We need to be aware of the situation on the ground, the situation in Belgrade, we cannot endanger that by the Kosovo settlement. At the same time we have to be aware of the situation on the ground in Kosovo," said one EU diplomat.

If the reformers do well and do not hinder a deal on Kosovo, diplomats said that EU foreign ministers will discuss in February ways of restarting Serbia’s talks on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement, a key step towards EU membership. Talks on the SAA are frozen over Serbia’s failure to capture war crimes suspect Radko Mladic´.

Opinion polls indicate the elections will be close. According to one poll the hard-right Serbian Radical Party is leading with 28%. The pro-EU Democratic Party (SD), headed by President Boris Tadic´, narrowly trails on 26-27% and Prime Minister Vojislav Koötunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia is trailing on 18%.

The EU is throwing its weight behind Serbia’s pro-EU parties ahead of elections in ten days’ time, in the hope of a result that will make a solution to Kosovo’s final status easier to reach.