Merkel brings fresh hope

Angela Merkel may be trying to damp down high expectations for Germany’s presidency of the EU but there is no doubt that across Europe politicians and diplomats are hoping that she will drag the European project out of the doldrums it fell into when French and Dutch citizens rejected the EU’s constitution last year.

While the leaders of France and the UK are about to step down from political life, Merkel could be in office for at least another two years. Although both the Christian Democrat (CDU) party she leads and its coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) have sunk in the opinion polls, neither party has an interest in calling elections soon - even less so as there are signs of renewed growth and job creation in Germany after several lean years.

Merkel is seen as a good European and with Germany’s political commitment to salvaging the EU constitution almost unmatched in Europe, hopes are rising that she will be able to restart negotiations on a new set of treaty reforms and possibly lay the groundwork for a deal at the end of 2007. By any reckoning this is an ambitious timetable and a lot will depend on the winner of the second round of the French presidential election in May. If the centre-right’s candidate, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, wins, his idea for a mini-treaty could be made to fit with Germany’s desire to keep changes to the agreed constitution text to a minimum. If Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal wins and insists on making the text more social, prospects of a deal seem more remote.

Negotiations on the Berlin declaration to mark the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome will provide a useful bellwether of chances for a deal on revising the constitution later in the year. There is no doubt that the German diplomatic machine is well oiled and prepared to give a deal the best chance of success.

While Merkel and her team have tried to play down expectations of what the presidency can achieve, EU member states face a much more assertive Germany, one which will not automatically pursue the greater European interest over its own national agenda.

This trend has abated slightly since Merkel took over from Gerhard Schröder, but there are plenty of issues on the presidency’s agenda for next year. And Germany could be blocking deals for further steps to integration where once its leadership was unchallenged. Germany will lock horns with the Commission over moves to improve competition in the energy sector if the Commission attempts to push through tough measures to separate generating capacity from distribution networks. Other examples include efforts to end the national vetoes in areas of police and judicial co-operation where Germany is insisting that any changes should wait for approval of a revised treaty. There could also be fights over regulation of Germany’s telecoms sector where the Commission is concerned about advantages enjoyed by dominant operator Deutsche Telekom.

The trend towards a more assertive Germany was very much in evidence during the last German presidency in 1999 under Gerhard Schröder. During the European Council on 3-4 June in that year, Germany and the other NATO member countries were engaged in the bombing campaign against Serbia in a bid to halt ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, the first time the alliance had attacked a sovereign state.

Seven years later traditional German reluctance to deploy troops outside its own territory has been eroded and the country has led peacekeeping missions to the Democratic Republic of Congo, made a major contribution to the United Nations’ force in Lebanon and has committed soldiers to the NATO force in Afghanistan.

Where once German foreign policy was conceived only in terms of European foreign policy, Berlin now takes a line closer to traditionally strong military powers such as France and the UK in favouring an intergovernmentalist approach. Germany will try to devise a more strategic approach to its neighbours by revising the European Neighbourhood Policy, focusing on central Asia and taking account of the importance of the security of energy supply. It will, however, have to deflect accusations that its new Ostpolitik is not sacrificing democratisation and human rights for the sake of oil and gas.

With Merkel at the helm, the question will be whether the new Germany can contribute to the creation of a new Europe or whether one more big member state pursuing its interests will deal yet another blow to European political integration.

Angela Merkel may be trying to damp down high expectations for Germany’s presidency of the EU but there is no doubt that across Europe politicians and diplomats are hoping that she will drag the European project out of the doldrums it fell into when French and Dutch citizens rejected the EU’s constitution last year.

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