Melting challenges

Bringing the US and Australia onside in the battle against climate change is seen as crucial if the world is to move beyond the Kyoto Protocol. Jennifer Rankin reports.

To get an idea of the scale of the challenge for Bali and beyond it is only necessary to consider the Kyoto Protocol. That took eight years to come into effect, its goals were modest and two big polluting countries rejected it. Now the world must come up with a much more ambitious deal in less than half the time.

For European negotiators, the essence of this deal is that rich countries accept mandatory binding emissions cuts, while developing countries agree to put their economic growth on a green path. But is this mission impossible?

Until recently it seemed so, but several European diplomats have taken heart from what they see as an apparent about-turn from the US on climate change. Earlier this year, US President George W. Bush declared that "energy security and climate change are two of the greatest issues of our time". "The US takes these challenges very seriously," he added. In September, the White House hosted a one-off meeting of the major economies on energy security and climate change. On 13 November, Paula J. Dobriansky, US under-secretary for democracy and global affairs, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that America would seek "a Bali roadmap to develop a post-2012 framework" and was committed to doing so by the end of 2009.

A senior official at the European Commission says that he has been hopeful since the preparatory meeting for Bali at Bogor in October. "We have seen some openings from America. Since the G8 [summit at Heiligendamm] we can say that we are sitting again around the table with the US. We do not agree, but we are talking again," he says.

Others are more sceptical. A common view is that the White House-sponsored conference in September was just a spoiler ahead of the UN meeting. "It was no more than an attempt by the Bush administration to position themselves [and] to deflect pressure on them to accept the obvious," says Simon Retallack, the lead researcher to an international climate change task-force supported by politicians in the UK, the US and Australia. A Slovenian diplomat says that it shows "they want to improve their image", but nevertheless he hopes the pressure from other countries will push the US to go further. Some conservationists think that little will change while Bush is in the White House. Stephan Singer, at WWF in Brussels, says: "The US will be persuaded anyway once we have a new president in the White House."

Climate experts are also keenly watching politics in Australia, where John Howard, the conservative prime minister, a climate change sceptic, is trailing in the opinion polls. The election is on Saturday (24 November). Along with the US, Australia is the other major industrialised country that refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. (Monaco and Lichtenstein also remain outside the protocol). Kevin Rudd, the Labour leader who is tipped to become the next prime minister, has vowed to make "Australia part of the climate change solution" and promised to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and create a AUS$415 million (€252m) fund for renewables.

European negotiators also detect change in China, a country that has previously shunned green measures for fear that they would threaten its economic growth. The Commission official says: "China is increasingly looking at the way we in Europe look at things, because they see themselves as equally vulnerable ….China is looking [at the issues] in a much more constructive open way." He adds that their renewable energy programme is "probably more ambitious" than Europe’s programme. Earlier this year, China announced its first national plan for climate change. But green campaigners were disappointed that it contained no new targets.

It is also important not to overlook smaller countries to avoid free-riders on any deal. For instance, South Korea, although overshadowed by China and India, is also industrialising rapidly.

In the run-up to Bali, the political tectonic plates have been shifting, but whether they provide the firm ground for a deal is not yet clear. At any rate, European leaders like to think their green credentials will give them a chance to make progress.

• The leading parties

The United States

The US has been written off as an environmental no-hoper under President George W. Bush but the picture is more complicated. Both Democrat and Republican politicians are supporting the US’ Climate Security Act (ACSC), a draft law proposing to limit and cut emissions by 60% by 2050 - although it may struggle to win approval from the Senate.

Rich in renewable energy potential, such as wind, solar and geothermal power, Australia has been a perpetual disappointment to green campaigners for refusing to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. The probable election of Kevin Rudd to the premiership could change this.

Expected to overtake the US as the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases during 2007. Earlier this year, the government unveiled a national plan for "sustainable development and poverty eradication", but could struggle to implement it, given indifference at a regional level.

The European Union

EU leaders signed up to ambitious targets to cut emissions by 20% by 2020 earlier this year. But while some politicians have high hopes for "an environmental union", others are less convinced. Václav Klaus, president of the Czech Republic, has described environmentalism as "the biggest threat to freedom, democracy, market economics and prosperity".

Despite an obvious proprietorial interest in the Kyoto Protocol, Japan was slow to ratify it and did so only in 2002, still with some reluctance because the US would not join in. Since then Japan has lagged in cutting emissions, but is increasingly interested in the business opportunities of going green.

Russia is a wild card in international climate talks and is unpredictable. It ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2004, but the targets are not a stretch because of its industrial collapse in the 1990s. Fossil fuels underpin the country’s recent economic revival, putting it on a collision course with any attempts to agree mandatory emissions cuts after 2012.

Bringing the US and Australia onside in the battle against climate change is seen as crucial if the world is to move beyond the Kyoto Protocol. Jennifer Rankin reports.