Mediating International Conflicts: The European Union as an Effective Peacemaker?

Abstract: This article examines how the EU's effectiveness as a mediator in peace negotiations can be appropriately conceptualized and analysed. Mediator effectiveness is analysed along two dimensions: goal-attainment and conflict settlement. Investigation of the conditions of mediator effectiveness is structured around four key sets of variables: mediator leverage, mediation strategy, coherence and the conflict's context.
In our empirical analysis of EU mediation between Serbia and Kosovo (Belgrade–Pristina dialogue) we find that the medium degree of EU effectiveness (both in terms of goal-attainment and conflict settlement) can be explained by its great leverage vis-à-vis the conflict parties due to their EU membership aspirations and its strategy of a mix of manipulation and formulation that draws on this leverage to move parties toward agreement through the use of positive incentives. A limited degree of EU coherence and spoiler problems in Northern Kosovo seem to have had a constraining influence on EU effectiveness.