Macedonia membership on the table

Date: 25/03/04

By David Cronin

THREE years ago, Macedonia was grappling with an armed insurrection, that pushed it to the brink of civil war. This week, the Balkan state submitted its application for EU membership.

Prime Minister Branko Crvenkovski, who formally handed the application request to Ireland's EU presidency in Dublin, has declined to speculate (in public, at least) about when the entry could actually happen. Yet some pundits in Skopje have suggested Macedonia should be recognized as a 'candidate country' at the time its neighbour Bulgaria joins the EU in 2007 (if things go according to plan), with a view to full accession occurring in 2009-10.

Should the country have to meet criteria similarly onerous to those demanded of fellow EU aspirants then it would have to jump through a few reformist hoops.

Significantly, a recent study has drawn parallels between Ankara and Skopje - particularly in how the army wields a significant influence over political developments and is hostile to change.

The paper, by James Pettifer from the UK-based Conflict Studies Research Centre, notes that “among major areas of concern to the international community, the sphere of military reform is where there has been least effective progress”. One of the most troubling manifestations was how an attempt by the government to purge the army of Slavic paramilitaries - known as the Lions and the Tigers - was met by disruptive protests.

NATO has sought that Macedonia reduce its armed forces of 60,000 (including 45,000 reservists) by almost one-tenth, while a target of increasing the level of ethnic Albanians in the army from 4.5% to 14% has been set. “There is some resemblance to the problems of the Turkish military in dealing with EU-inspired social and political reform programmes in contemporary Turkey,” says Pettifer. “Armies of this type, where the army is central to the state foundation, find it hard to live with modern multiculturalism that demands the abandonment of coercive monocultural educational and cultural structures.”

According to a census carried out in 2002 - the results of which were not announced until late last year - around 64% of the country's two million people are ethnic Macedonians and 25% ethnic Albanians. Other minorities include Turks, Roma gypsies and Serbs.

The country's ethnic Albanian inhabitants have been victims of persistent discrimination. During a crackdown on 'nationalism' in the 1980s, attending a traditional ethnic Albanian wedding was an offence, punishable by imprisonment.

Brokered by the international community, the Ohrid Agreement of 2001 committed the Skopje authorities to changing the national constitution, guaranteeing ethnic Albanians such rights as access to education in their own tongue. Some progress has been registered in the interim - in January, for example, the national parliament gave its blessing to an Albanian language centre in Tetovo University.

The National Liberation Army, the ethnic Albanian force behind the 2001 uprising, has opted for a political path. Its leader Ali Ahmeti is now part of the ruling coalition, as head of the Democratic Union of Integration.

The party is officially in favour of preserving the country's territorial integrity. But there are other ethnic Albanian political figures that have rejected the Ohrid Agreement - Arben Xhaferi, leader of the Democratic Party of Albanians, wants his community to have the right to self-determination and has backed the idea of merging with Albania proper in a federation.

“Macedonian Albanians have always been amenable to some type of integration with Kosovo and should Macedonia decline even further economically, or should the Ohrid Agreement stall, then the notion of some greater integration with Albania will become increasingly desired,” states a report, published last month by the International Crisis Group.

Among the myriad socio-economic problems in Macedonia are an unemployment rate that could be as high as 36%, widespread smuggling (including in arms) and corruption.

Trajko Slaveski, president of the Association for Modern Economy in Macedonia, says the unrest across the border in Kosovo has repelled potential investors. But he insists that Macedonia's EU aspirations should not be held hostage to political instability in the region.

He reckons, too, that the quest for EU membership should be a catalyst for reform. “Now we should have a certain yardstick to promote those forces in society that approach the European Union positively. If we are recognized as a candidate country, this will be a big sign we are not being left aside.

“Macedonia has an advantage of being a small country, so it would be more easily absorbed into the Union than many others. We would not pose the problems big countries bring in relation to agricultural subsidies, for example.”

Macedonia has submitted its application for membership of the European Union.

• Primary Source

European External Action Service: Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia http://eeas.europa.eu/the_former_yugoslav_republic_of_macedonia/index_en.htm

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