Lynx set to lose out to Estonian horse-traders

Presidential elections in Estonia remind me of games like blind man’s buff. Only when the blindfold is removed do you know for sure what you’ve caught.

Toomas-Hendrik Ilves, a centre-right MEP, is unquestionably the most popular candidate. But his chances of getting elected are slight, thanks to the strange electoral system.

Originally it was created in order to get the late Lennart Meri elected. This wonderful eccentric became popular only while in office; but then he was at least as good an acting president as Ronald Reagan at his best.

Now that Meri is gone he has become the icon of the nation. But he would not have stood a chance in a popular election in the 1990s. Meri was a true cosmopolitan despite being prevented from travelling during the Soviet times. His father was a diplomat who had served in London and Paris, and among other things translated Shakespeare into Estonian. When the family was later deported to Siberia it traded father’s numerous silk ties for eggs.

In August, Ilves (his name means "lynx" in English) failed to get the two-thirds majority he needed in parliament. Now the process is in the hands of a special electoral body, a monster-like crowd consisting of 101 members of parliament and 246 representatives from Estonian cities and municipalities.

This means a lot of horse-trading "in the fields", as the locals call this body.

The president-in-office, Arnold Rüütel, could be re-elected after all. This Russian-speaking, Moscow-educated ex-Communist is as old as Fidel Castro. But the old guard has plenty of supporters in the remoter areas of this midget country.

Those who despise the nouveaux riches will back Rüütel for sure. They do not like the "American" who did not suffer as they did: Ilves does not speak Russian, has never been a Communist, and was never deported to Siberia. His parents defected to Sweden, where he was born in 1953.

After university studies in the US, Ilves became a celebrity among those Estonians who dared to listen to Radio Free Europe in Munich and its good gospel of freedom. Then, after the liberation of his fatherland he became ambassador to the US, then minister of foreign affairs and two years ago he was elected a member of the European Parliament.

Ilves is a Social Democrat, but his views are on most issues more liberal than those of Tony Blair. He wears a bow-tie, chews Nicorette gum when not smoking and has a healthy appetite for good food and wines.

Now it looks like the same tangled system that was created to prevent old Communists becoming presidents of the republic may secure another term for an old Commie. The Estonians are clever people but somehow they also seem able to trick themselves.

Presidential elections in Estonia remind me of games like blind man’s buff. Only when the blindfold is removed do you know for sure what you’ve caught.