Local elections key to Bosnian reconstruction

Date: 31/07/1997

By Mark Turner

BOSNIA will have little time to sit back and celebrate the success of last week's donors' conference in Brussels.

Although $1.2 billion (1.1 billion ecu) richer, in principle at least, the fragmented Balkan country faces some gruelling challenges over the coming months.

The most immediate of these are September's local elections, which will be a crucial step for the fragile federal state in its progress towards functioning democracy.

Over 20,000 candidates will contest more than 3,000 seats in 30 municipalities, with around 2.5 million people registered to vote. The figure includes some 400,000 refugees in foreign countries - a number which, although down on last year, reflects a growing desire amongst them to return home.

“This level of registration is an excellent result”, said a spokesman for the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which is in charge of overseeing the elections.

Other agencies are not quite so enthusiastic about the numbers, but praise the OSCE's pre-election rigour.

Hinging on the polls' success is no less than the successful re-integration of Bosnia and the return of war refugees from abroad. Some experts hope that they could even (indirectly) make it more likely for the local authorities to cooperate with the International Court of Justice.

As things stand now, those aims are still a long way from being achieved.

The Muslim-Croat federation and the Republika Srpska (RS) remain sharply divided over issues ranging from car registration to currency and, despite recent promises to the International Monetary Fund, they remain a long way from economic or political union.

The hope is that if Muslims or Croats make substantial local gains in the RS, and Serbs take some key towns in the Federation, the strict divide between the two entities may begin to dissolve. Srebrenica, for example, is tipped as a key Muslim gain, while Drvar in the Federation is likely to become Serb-controlled.

“The elections could break the entities' stranglehold,” said an official at the Office of the High Representative (OHR), although he predicted that they would not take this lying down.

Such changes could nevertheless provide a much-needed confidence boost to people planning to return to their pre-war homes, both from elsewhere in Bosnia or abroad.

As the layer of government closest to the everyday lives of Bosnian citizens, the municipalities and those who run them are the primary face of authority for ordinary people, and need to be seen to represent local concerns.

“People are very reluctant to cross boundaries if they do not feel they will meet sympathetic administrators,” said an OHR official. “The elections will be very important for confidence-building.”

In an effort to avoid the irregularities of last year, when reportedly there was electoral fraud on a massive scale, the OSCE has just completed eight weeks of rigorous registration procedures.

NATO forces will provide a huge security presence on the day, in particular to ensure safe passage for those crossing the line that divides the entities, and international observers and supervisors will be on duty throughout the country.

“We anticipate peaceful and fair elections,” said an OSCE spokesman, although he warned: “We can only guarantee the safety of those going directly to their municipalities. This is not a time for visiting old homes or graveyards; we have to find a balance between freedom of movement and security.”

But while the voting should go smoothly, implementing its results will be far from easy. International agencies fear that there may be some heavy resistance within the entities to any erosion of their authority, and are preparing for some long-term challenges.

The OSCE has drawn up a comprehensive implementation plan, and staff working for the High Representative Carlos Westendorp are gearing up to hold the baby after the rest of the world has gone home.

Unfortunately, despite signs that some people will vote on issues such as social welfare or the environment, it still looks likely that a large number intend to decide upon nationalist lines.

As the campaign progresses, that tendency is likely to be exacerbated as politicians play on ethnic tensions. Given the emotive nature of the polls, any hand-over of power is likely to be seen as a partisan victory rather than a democratic choice.

Observers add that even where political power does change hands, the entities will continue to keep a strong grip on the local police forces.

Until Bosnians do start to integrate, however, economic recovery will elude them and the international community may well lose the will to help.

The Brussels donors' conference last week was unusual in that, although money was pledged, one half of Bosnia (the RS) is unlikely to receive any of it for some time.

In a final statement, delegates expressed “grave concern” over the critical situation in the entity, “where an increasingly anti-democratic climate, acts of terrorism and abuses of police are undermining basic human rights”.

But all sides recognise that reconciliation cannot be imposed from outside. “Ultimately, the responsibility for all of this lies with the Bosnians,” said an OHR spokesman.