Leader well-suited to the job

Date: 19/06/1997

THREE years ago, the style police descended on Bertie Ahern. Out went his trade-mark anorak, removed by surgery according to one rumour, and in came a fleet of sharply tailored suits.

His tousled shock of greying hair was henceforth to be tamed and his drove of advisers never stopped urging him to lighten his thick north Dublin accent and improve his diction.

The makeover appears to have paid dividends and this week Bartholomew Ahern - Bertie to all - was piecing together Ireland's newest coalition government.

But despite his success, Dublin's professional begrudgers remain to be convinced. “You can take the man out of the anorak - but can you take the anorak out of the man?” asked one leading member of the 'begrudgerati' this week.

There are monumental challenges ahead. Ahern must build a durable coalition pact with the Progressive Democrat Party and several independent deputies; Maastricht economic rigour must be maintained against blackmailing interest groups' demands; new approaches must be found to tackle the Northern Irish problem; and the gap left by a sizeable tapering off in EU structural funds after 1999 must be bridged.

But even Ahern's detractors concede that politics is in his blood. At 14, he was nicknamed 'director of the lamppost boys' in the 1965 election as he supervised campaign billposting. Aged 26, he was elected to the parliament, or Dáil Éireann, and he has lived and breathed politics ever since.

His approach is always essentially personal and it is almost impossible to overstate his charm. During a power workers' dispute, when he was labour affairs minister, political correspondents asked the government press secretary if the minister would intervene. “Bertie will go out and have a few pints with the lads tonight and see what can be done,” came the reply.

This easy charm, however, belies a total ruthlessness. Ahern is fiercely ambitious and he understands power. Otherwise, he would never have become leader of Ireland's largest political party at the age of 42.

Witness this tribute from his former leader and mentor, Charles Haughey, himself no mean purveyor of power: “He is the man. He is the best, the most skilful, the most devious and the most cunning of them all.”

Perhaps Ahern's greatest asset is the natural grace which hides his cutting edge. This is boosted by a total commitment to consensus politics.

His period in labour affairs and later the finance department coincided with wide-ranging and renewed agreements between all the country's social partners. The same approach extended to his party's participation in two recent coalition governments and more recently within his own party to the divisive 1995 divorce referendum.

Ahern's older brother Noel, also a Dáil deputy, was among members clamouring for a hard-line anti-divorce stance. But Ahern was the first party leader in the state's history to be separated from his wife and openly living with another woman. The issue was tactfully resolved by a pro-divorce stance by both leader and party, with individual deputies allowed to express their opposition.

From this and other experiences, Ahern is seen as part of the 'modernisation' of Ireland. But he remains a committed Catholic, proudly wearing the penitence mark on his forehead on Ash Wednesday and accompanying his mother to Lourdes.

As a modernising influence, Ahern has been an enthusiastic EU supporter throughout his career. When in government, he has always played his part in the Council of Ministers to the full. During the 1990 Irish presidency, he was to the fore in social charter negotiations, and though in opposition during the 1996 Irish presidency, he steadfastly supported the government's approach.

On Irish participation in EMU, Ahern will rebuff calls from his Progressive Democrat coalition partners to 'wait and see' what the country's largest trading partner, the UK, will do.

As finance minister, Ahern held a consistent pro-EMU stance and passed this to his successor Ruairi Quinn. The transition back to an Ahern-led government in this area will be seamless.

Equally, he will adopt a damage-limitation policy in negotiations on the next round of structural funds. Irish public opinion is already prepared for a drop in the funding level in the 2000-2005 package. Considerable kudos can be gained from being seen to fight an effective rearguard action to minimise the downturn.

Overall, Ahern's commitment to consensus leaves him very much in tune with Europe's Christian and Social Democrat parties. It is principally the strange accidents of Irish history which leave him within Fianna Fáil.

The party was founded in 1926 from the militant nationalist group opposing the 1922 Treaty settlement with the UK. Ahern's own father was a War of Independence veteran and keen Fianna Fáil supporter.

It is this heritage, suggesting a better rapport with Sinn Fein, which offers hope that new ground can be broken in the Northern Ireland conflict.

The years have blunted distinctions between Fianna Fáil and its main rival Fine Gael. But the former has always been more populist, emulating its Gaullist EU allies in keeping a broad, non-ideological support base. This has frequently meant stealing the clothes of the Irish Labour Party, as happened again in this month's election to the chagrin of Labour leader Dick Spring, the outgoing deputy prime minister.

Fianna Fáil had long been Ireland's 'natural government party'. But the huge economic and social changes following EU entry in 1973, combined with the country's proportional voting system, changed this for ever.

Fianna Fáil's first-ever entry into coalition government in 1989 was seen as formal recognition that Ireland's future lay in a European model of politics. Ahern was a key negotiator in that coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats, a small right-leaning Fianna Fáil breakaway group.

He was again to the fore in negotiations when the party, led by his predecessor Albert Reynolds, did a deal with Spring's Labour Party in 1992. Ahern welcomed that alliance especially. Besides having excellent trade union contacts, he enjoyed good relations with key Labour deputies, including Ruairi Quinn.

But a bizarre turn of events ended this alliance in November 1992, when a complex row over the handling of extradition proceedings to Northern Ireland of a paedophile priest toppled Reynolds as prime minister and party leader. Ahern succeeded him and, at first, it looked certain the coalition could be resumed and even strengthened by an Ahern-Spring alliance.

But less than 24 hours before this was due to become reality, Spring got cold feet, following allegations that Ahern might have been closer to the extradition case than had earlier been suggested.

Ironically, Ahern received the news at the Council of Ministers building in Brussels where he was attending a meeting of EU finance ministers. He entered the Council as prime minister designate and exited to begin a difficult stint on the opposition benches.

Spring did a new deal with Fine Gael and the smaller neo-Communist Democratic Left grouping. This unlikely rainbow coalition thrived until elections this month when it was comprehensively defeated, leaving Ahern's Fianna Fáil and allies poised for power.

Pundits will ponder these strange results, at a time of unprecedented economic boom, into the next millennium. Perhaps they should not have been so surprised. After all, the electorate simply stuck to its 30-year-old habit of never returning a sitting government.

This 'turn-them-over' trend was reinforced by sleaze allegations affecting all the main parties, and the huge anti-Labour vote prompted by the impression that it was ready to do anything for power. However, Ahern's ability to build a grass-root election machine, aided by former EU Commissioner Ray MacSharry, was also crucial. Fianna Fáil is by far the biggest party in parliament and just six seats short of an overall majority.

The road ahead will be far from smooth. The Irish people have become increasingly demanding and want a chunk of the national wealth. The apparently strong economy belies a fragility and an imperative to keep an iron grip on expenditure, especially by facing down public sector pay demands.

It is certain that Ahern's former EU counterparts will welcome him back into their midst, as his pro-European credentials are beyond doubt. But at home in the fickle world of Irish politics, problems are inevitable. The style police will be able to offer only limited help.