Kosovo’s future haunts the UN

Worsening EU-Russia relations could cloud the debate at the UN on Kosovo’s status, writes Judith Crosbie.

There will not be many chances for holidays for diplomats dealing with Kosovo this year. The fifth draft of a UN resolution on the breakaway province, circulated last Friday (13 July), triggered intense consultations within the Security Council. France, the UK and the US will be busy trying to cajole Russia into accepting it, while the EU is patiently hoping that the Security Council can break the deadlock on the future status of Kosovo.

Though there are feelings of déjà vu when it comes to UN Security Council resolutions on Kosovo, there appears to be some impetus to move on this one. "The sponsors are determined to move forward one way or the other either inside the Council or otherwise," US Ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad said on Monday (16 July).

For some, the resolution represents a compromise. It allows talks to be resumed between the parties during a 120-day period and removes a reference to supervised independence for the breakaway province, the idea put forward in a plan by UN mediator Martti Ahtisaari in February. But for Serbia and Russia the outcome appears still to be a forgone conclusion and on this there is no compromise. "Serbia has a main goal, to protect territorial integrity and sovereignty over Kosovo," Serbia’s President Boris Tadic recently told European Voice.

Kosovo, where 90% of the population is ethnic Albanian, has been administered by the United Nations since the 1999 NATO bombings which ended a Serbian crackdown on ethnic Albanian guerrillas.

The draft resolution would allow negotiations to take place on the future of Kosovo with the UN administration replaced by the EU and EU troops put in on the ground.

But though the resolution may not result in any breakthrough in talks among the Serbs and Kosovans, it might still help ease the situation.

"It could be a way out for Russia and Serbia…it might work if there is no alternative and could prove to be a face-saving mechanism," said Joost Lagendijk, a Dutch Green MEP and author of a European Parliament report on Kosovo.

It also buys time for the EU, which has to deal with its own internal divisions on the issue. Some member states, such as France and the UK, support Kosovo’s independence, while others, including Spain, Romania and Cyprus, fear it could create a precedent for other secessionist groups. "The key…is about keeping Europe united. There are weak links which Russia is always trying to exploit," said Gergana Noutcheva, an associate research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies.

The Russian element is a worrying one for the EU and Kosovo could be another demonstration of the poor relations between the two. "European diplomats following the completion of the Ahtisaari plan assumed that Russia would resist for a couple of months…but Kosovo has become a victim of the deteriorating situation between Russia and the EU," said Lagendijk.

Despite the impasse in the Security Council the EU is adamant that the issue should be resolved at the UN - or at least that talking should continue under the contact group, set up to oversee Balkan diplomacy and comprising the US, the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Russia. The EU’s foreign policy chief Javier Solana after meeting Kosovo’s Prime Minister Agim Çeku last week sharply rejected the view that the Security Council was unable to deliver a solution. For the EU such a statement is a veiled warning against the possibility of Kosovo declaring independence unilaterally, a move that would destroy whatever unity has been achieved among the EU’s member states.

A compromise on the resolution could involve leaving out the subject of final status for Kosovo, pending talks, and allowing an EU force to take over from the UN, said Lagendijk. If Kosovo declared independence, the EU, with a force on the ground, could be faced with an even bigger crisis. "Is the EU ready to be on the spot when trouble starts?" Lagendijk asked.

Jovan Jovanovic, of the Balkan Trust for Democracy in Belgrade, said that there was unlikely to be movement on the resolution before the autumn but if Russia still held out at that stage the US could try to put together a "coalition of the willing" to recognise Kosovo’s independence and supply troops on the group. "The magic number would maybe be around 20 member states following some arm-twisting. It won’t be as many as 27 member states but no one is going to be put out if Cyprus for example doesn’t support it. There will be no big divisions in the EU after that," said Jovanovic.

But with elections expected in both Serbia and Kosovo in the autumn, politics on the ground will make international negotiations even tougher.

Worsening EU-Russia relations could cloud the debate at the UN on Kosovo’s status, writes Judith Crosbie.