Kosovo’s future dominates Serb presidential election

Serbia’s electorate of 6.7 million citizens will on Sunday (20 January) be called upon to put a cross next to one of nine names on the presidential ballot. As well as choosing a new president, they will also pick a direction for the entire country.

Of the nine contenders, only the incumbent, pro-Western Boris Tadic, and his main challenger, Tomislav Nikolic from the Radical party, are expected to make it into the second round, scheduled for 3 February.

Prime Minister Vojislav Koštunica of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) supports the leader of a smaller coalition partner rather than Tadic, who heads the Democratic Party (DS).

Kosovo’s leaders are expected to state, shortly after the second round of Serbian elections, their intention to declare independence from Serbia within weeks or months.

While all major Serbian parties are adamantly opposed to letting Kosovo become independent, Koštunica has said that he will refuse a pre-accession pact with the EU if the Union decides to launch its rule-of-law mission in Kosovo, which was approved in principle by EU leaders on 14 December.

In a sign of defiance, the Serbian government adopted on Monday (14 January) an action plan to deal with the fall-out from Kosovo’s independence. The plan reportedly includes the downgrading of diplomatic relations with countries that recognise Kosovo, an energy embargo on Kosovo and a ban on Kosovo passport holders entering Serbia.

The formal decision to launch the rule-of-law mission was widely expected to be taken at a meeting of EU foreign ministers on 28 January, though EU officials have been saying for some time that there are "no fixed timelines". Germany would like to get twin statements at the foreign ministers’ meeting acknowledging the Kosovo government’s intention to declare independence and launching the rule-of-law mission.

Diplomats from EU member states are now saying that the end of January is a less and less realistic date for the launch of the mission and that a delay is needed in order "not to pour oil on the fire".

Since the foreign ministers’ meeting takes place in-between the two rounds of Serbia’s presidential ballot, some EU member states were also hoping to soften the blow by offering Belgrade a formal signing of a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), a pre-accession pact.

That prospect appears remote after the new chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), Serge Brammertz, said that he saw no change in Serbia’s stance towards the tribunal. "Full co-operation" with The Hague is a stated precondition for the SAA to be signed.

Koštunica, meanwhile, has pushed for closer ties with Russia. This week, a delegation from Russian energy giant Gazprom is in Belgrade to negotiate Gazprom’s acquisition of a majority stake in Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), a state-owned energy firm which holds a monopoly on the distribution of oil and gas in the country.

Gazprom is reportedly offering that the main pipeline of its planned South Stream project to bring natural gas to markets in central and western Europe, would go through Serbia, giving the country energy security and trans-shipment fees.

The no-bid sale is opposed by some coalition partners in the current government and has raised concerns in the European Commission that its provisions, especially the continuation of NIS’ domestic monopoly, run counter to the terms of the SAA.

Serbia’s electorate of 6.7 million citizens will on Sunday (20 January) be called upon to put a cross next to one of nine names on the presidential ballot. As well as choosing a new president, they will also pick a direction for the entire country.