Kosovo’s dangerous precedents

The end-game for Kosovo appears to be approaching: Martti Ahtisaari, the United Nations special envoy, has laid out his plan for virtual independence; the UN Security Council has toured the region; and the US, ably abetted by the UK and somewhat by the EU, has orchestrated all this.

Intrinsic to this near-crusade for Kosovo independence is the repeated assertion that this move would not set an international precedent - which is simply incorrect. Independence for Kosovo would be a clear precedent - and one that could augur badly for separatist regions around the globe, not least in the already strife-ridden Iraq. This could have exceedingly negative implications on global stability.

There are at least three significant reasons for this act being a precedent.

First, a theoretical precedent: it would put the principle of self-determination above the principle of territorial integrity, which became the bedrock of international affairs after the end of the Second World War. Since then the international community has systematically stuck with this principle, effectively upholding the rights of the sovereign state above those of groups of peoples or individuals within them. What is more, all the previous settlements in the Balkans, from the early 1990s onwards, were created upon this basis - as underlined in every Security Council Resolution (SCR) from 1991 onwards.

To gloss over this reality, senior US and EU officials claim this is but the last element of the break-up of Yugoslavia, a neglected issue which the international community allowed to fester while focusing on other parts of the Balkans. As such the Kosovars are ‘owed’ independence, in line with the other warring parties of the 1990s. This reasoning poses the second precedent, in two ways. First, it is effectively a recasting of history. The break-up of Yugoslavia always referred to its six constituent republics, and it was their territorial integrity that was respected. Kosovo is a province in Serbia, a constituent republic, and referred to as such in every SCR on the province since 1993. Suggesting its ills were part of the break-up is therefore a retroactive redefinition of its status.

The moral reasoning of ‘owing’ the Kosovars must set a precedent for every oppressed people in the world. Upon this basis, and currently in Africa alone, the international community owes it to the people of Darfur to grant them independence from Sudan, which has aided and abetted in having them displaced, murdered and raped; or to the people of Zimbabwe to remove their bizarre dictator Robert Mugabe who has led them to famine and destruction.

The third precedent already exists: it is the reality of Kosovo today - which in itself is based upon the precedent of the 1999 NATO bombing campaign, undertaken without Security Council authorisation. The International Independent Commission on Kosovo convened in 2000 defined it as "illegal but legitimate" due to the then dire humanitarian circumstances. It also defined the post-bombing institutional arrangements as "a unique institutional hybrid, a UN protectorate with unlimited power whose purpose is to prepare the province for autonomy and self-government - but in the framework of FRY [Serbia]". In other words, a precedent - but one that upholds the territorial integrity of Serbia above the rights of Kosovar self-determination.

Granting Kosovo independence unilaterally would be a precedent for every separatist group in every sovereign state - a fact which has already led several EU member states to withhold support for the drive for independence.

Beyond Europe, independence for Kosovo could and probably would set the precedent for the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, or for Chechnya’s independence from Russia. These could definitely cause a ruckus in the Caucasus. But it would be as nothing to the mess that would result from the creation of independent Sunni and Shia states, which could break away from Iraq - or an independent Kurdistan, which would be totally unacceptable to Turkey, Iran, Syria and Armenia too, which all have restive Kurdish minorities.

There must be a just settlement for Kosovo and Serbia, one that probably involves partition and is agreed between the sides and not imposed by the international community. For only in this manner will independence for Kosovo not pose a precedent - and therefore an opening for serious instability around the world.

• Ilana Bet-El is an academic, author and policy adviser based in Brussels.

The end-game for Kosovo appears to be approaching: Martti Ahtisaari, the United Nations special envoy, has laid out his plan for virtual independence; the UN Security Council has toured the region; and the US, ably abetted by the UK and somewhat by the EU, has orchestrated all this.