Kosovo: the Taiwan of the west?

Concern is growing among some EU member states that Kosovo has embarked on a headlong rush towards independence.

Talks on Kosovo's final status began in February between Serbia and Kosovo, with representatives from a six-nation contact group acting as observers. Since then the EU has been content to let Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish president who is running the negotiations, get on with his work.

Three months on, EU members, particularly those in close proximity to the western Balkans, appear increasingly nervous.

Suggestions from senior UK diplomat John Sawers, that Kosovo's independence is probably the only option on the table, have created an uneasy sense of inevitability.

Hungarian diplomats are among those who are becoming increasing vocal about their concerns. Budapest fears that independence for Kosovo could fuel calls for independence in the northern Serbian province of Vojvodina. The province borders Hungary and has a sizeable Magyar population.

Jelko Kacin, a Slovene MEP and former defence minister, said: "If Kosovo, which is relatively poor, or Montenegro can break away from Serbia, the two million people in Vojvodina, the richest part of Serbia and Montenegro are bound to ask why they cannot."

Magyars make up an estimated 11% of the Vojvodina's population, but in municipalities bordering Hungary the figure is closer to 70%.

Austria, too, has concerns. There are signs that for Vienna the current speed and direction of travel are not wholly welcome. Among Austria's fears is the prospect that there might be mass migration from an independent, but economically failing Kosovo, which has a relatively young population.

Austria is not a member of the six-nation contact group - France, Germany, Italy, Russia, the UK and US - but it does have the means to get its point across and not simply through its presidency of the European Council. Its diplomats are in influential positions: Stefan Lehne acts as the EU's representative to the talks and Albert Rohan, Ahtisaari's assistant, leads their day-to-day management.

The Bulgarian newspaper, the Sofia Echo, this week blazed across its pages the headline 'Kosovo, Montenegro, and then what next?'

Russia has warned that Kosovo would set a precedent for the frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union. Some Bosnian Serb politicians with secessionist tendencies have long tried to link the fate of Kosovo to Bosnia's Republika Srpska.

With one eye on domestic politics, Spain has traditionally been sceptical of Kosovan independence, fearing a precedent for regional secession without the consent of the central government.

Given this resistance, ideas being floated by Serbia and Montenegro's foreign minister Vuk Dras

kovi�c appear increasingly popular. Dras

kovi�c argues that Kosovo should have substantial autonomy, except a seat at the United Nations, the ultimate trapping of statehood.

His proposals are being seen by some observers as potentially useful for the EU despite concerns that the lack of formal UN membership would make it difficult for Kosovo to join numerous other organisations, for which UN membership is a prerequisite.

According to Henriette Riegler of the Austrian Institute for International Affairs, something short of independence might be needed for the EU to manage the future of the province. "The EU is likely to take up a monitoring function post-status. If independence is realised then the EU has no control mechanism or sanctions."

Others warn that such a situation would see the EU play too great a role in the future of the province and caution that the EU's own rules mean Kosovo would have to have treaty-making powers.

"The EU needs clarity on who they are negotiating with and for what," said Judy Batt of the EU Institute of Security Studies, "The EU cannot sign a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with Kosovo while status is unclear."

While the prize of full independence could be enough to drive forward reforms in Kosovo, some warn that this would necessitate heavy EU involvement over many years.

Others warn that constitutional uncertainty could result in UN members recognising Kosovo's independence bilaterally. In such a situation the prospect of creating another Taiwan is not impossible.

Article on the negotiations on Kosovo's final status which began in February 2006 between Serbia and Kosovo. Representatives from a six-nation contact group were acting as observers to the talks led by Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish President. Author suggests that European Governments were feeling increasingly uneasy that independence for Kosovo might be seen as the only option on the table.

European Commission: DG Enlargement: Potential candidate countries: Kosovo issues http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/potential-candidates/kosovo/index_en.htm

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