Kosovo: the end-game

The diplomatic end-game over the final status of Kosovo will begin on Monday (10 December), when diplomats from the six-member Contact Group will present their report to Ban Ki-moon, the secretary-general of the United Nations.

On the same day, EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the next steps.

EU diplomats say that the ministers will draft a declaration that is likely to be issued by heads of state and government when they meet in Brussels later next week (14 December).

The declaration is intended to send a clear signal that negotiations between Serbs and Kosovars have failed. This is important because Russia and its client Serbia insist that more talks are needed between Serbs and Albanians.

Their positions, however, remain as fundamentally unbridgeable as ever. Kosovo’s Albanian majority wants nothing short of independence while the Serbian government is prepared to grant anything but independence.

Despite the fact that some EU member states hold reservations regarding an independent Kosovo, diplomats believe that they will not block the EU taking over from Kosovo’s current UN administration (Unmik). NATO peacekeepers will continue to provide security for the foreseeable future.

It is widely assumed that the government of Kosovo will issue a declaration of independence early in 2008 and that all but a handful of EU member states will recognise it.

But the process could take longer than Kosovo’s Albanians hope. Slovenia, which takes over the EU’s rotating presidency for the first half of 2008, is cautious on independence and aims to bring Serbia closer to the EU. It is therefore likely to try to introduce additional curbs on Kosovo’s self-government, for example by insisting on extensive minority rights and the protection of cultural monuments.

A potential problem currently preoccupying planners in Brussels is that a Security Council resolution authorising the EU’s planned rule-of-law mission, its political mission and NATO peacekeepers is not assured. This makes some EU members nervous: not everyone is convinced by legal opinions which say that UN Security Council resolution 1244, which established the UN administration in Kosovo, will continue to apply beyond independence.

While the EU as such does not recognise countries, it has never sent a political and security mission to a country that is not recognised by all member states.

Once the status question is off the table, the focus will shift to the security situation on the ground, especially the fate of the region north of Mitrovica, which is under the control of Belgrade, and the ethnic Serb enclaves elsewhere in the province. Kfor - the UN peacekeeping force - is quietly reinforcing its presence at potential flashpoints and is determined to prevent a replay of March 2004, when 19 Serbs were killed by Albanian mobs in organised riots.

Another problem which the Kosovar authorities will confront after independence is economic distress and dysfunctional government. So far, Kosovo’s politicians have managed to evade responsibility for the dire state of the economy and the incompetence and corruption that pervade public institutions: both could be blamed on the unresolved status question, which scared off foreign investors and prevented normal politics and accountability mechanisms. As such arguments lose sway, Kosovo could become more, not less, difficult to govern.

The former Yugoslavia

The status of Kosovo is the last unresolved piece of territorial business remaining from the demise of Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia was set up as a unitary state (initially called the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes) after the First World War and ceased to exist when Germany and Italy occupied it in 1941. Following the victory of Tito’s partisans in 1945, the second Yugoslavia was established as a federal state comprising six republics - Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia. It also had two autonomous provinces with large minority populations, Vojvodina and Kosovo, both located inside Serbia. Federalism was at first largely notional, but the constitution of 1974 gave the republics and autonomous regions wide-ranging powers.

Tito died in 1980 and, after 1987 when Slobodan Miloševic came to power in Serbia, Yugoslavia came increasingly under the domination of the strongman. It broke apart when all republics except Montenegro declared independence in 1991 and 1992. Montenegro continued to be part first of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and then the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro until it went its own way after a referendum in 2006.

One outstanding issue from Yugoslavia’s dissolution is the name of Macedonia. Greece objects to its name saying that it implies claims on Greek territory; in consequence, most countries recognise it under the name of Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, often abbreviated as FYROM.

The negotiation process

Kosovo has been under UN administration since NATO evicted Serbian troops from the province in 1999. Under Security Council resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999, the UN provided essential government functions in the province that have been gradually replaced by institutions of self-government.

Martti Ahtisaari, a former president of Finland, was tasked by the UN with drafting a report on options for a final status. He delivered his report to the UN Security Council in March 2007 after talks between Belgrade and Pristina.

But the international supervision foreseen by Ahtisaari failed to sway Russia, which made it clear that it would veto any new resolution endorsing independence for Kosovo. The status process was subsequently moved to the Contact Group, an informal committee on Balkan issues which consists of the US, Russia, the UK, France, Italy and Germany. The Contact Group in turn mandated a troika of American, EU and Russian mediators to run the talks, which concluded on 28 November 2007 without agreement. The troika will report to the Contact Group, which will report to the UN secretary-general by 10 December.

Next steps for the EU

Most EU member states are expected to recognise Kosovo’s declaration of independence but are unlikely to do so before mid-2008, to retain some leverage over the Kosovo authorities.

The EU is planning to send some 75 diplomats and experts to Kosovo to form the International Civilian Office (ICO), headed by an International Civilian Representative who will also serve as EU Special Representative (EUSR). The ICO will employ some 200 local staff from Kosovo. The EU will also send a European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) rule-of-law mission with some 1,800 EU staff, most of them police officers, which will reach full strength after 120 days.

ESDP missions require unanimity among the EU’s 27 members, but diplomats do not expect this to be a problem even if not all member states recognise independence.

The diplomatic end-game over the final status of Kosovo will begin on Monday (10 December), when diplomats from the six-member Contact Group will present their report to Ban Ki-moon, the secretary-general of the United Nations.