| Author (Person) | Cronin, David |
|---|---|
| Series Title | European Voice |
| Series Details | Vol.10, No.20, 3.6.04 |
| Publication Date | 03/06/2004 |
| Content Type | News |
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By David Cronin Date: 03/06/04 KOSOVO has the potential to become Europe's West Bank. That was the bleak warning from the International Crisis Group think-tank, which argued that, unless Kosovo's economic and political problems are addressed with genuine resolve, then the inter-ethnic violence which flared up this Spring, killing 19, could become a regular occurrence. The resignation of Harri Holkeri as head of the UN's interim administration in Kosovo (UNMIK) could present an opportunity for the EU and wider international community to take a more assertive stance in one of the most volatile parts of that unstable region, the Balkans. Initial indications are that Holkeri, Finland's erstwhile prime minister, will be replaced with someone who has senior experience at EU level. Names bandied about include Peter Feith (currently the Balkans advisor to the High Representative for Foreign Affairs Javier Solana), Stefano Sanino (now an aide to European Commission President Romano Prodi), the former Irish foreign minister Dick Spring and French diplomat Alain le Roi, formerly the EU's envoy to Macedonia. Whoever is appointed will have a tough job making amends for the perceived errors made under Holkeri's tutelage. One major factor in the acerbic attitude which many Kosovar Albanians took to him concerned UNMIK's privatization strategy. A hubbub of resentment developed due to the activities of the Kosovo Trust Agency, which oversees the transfer of publicly-owned enterprises into private hands. The agency's head Marie Fucci had previously worked on privatization in Serbia and was perceived by the Kosovar Albanians as lacking the necessary impartiality for such a delicate task. Although Holkeri announced in April that Fucci would be replaced, Balkans watchers have said the apparently hamfisted approach to privatization has left a legacy of bitterness. Another fundamental problem is that Kosovo is no longer the big story it was in the 1990s, when it was synonymous with the brutal 'ethnic cleansing' policies of Slobodan Milosevic's hardline regime. While EU leaders stated at the Thessaloniki summit in June last year that they wish to have Kosovo - and the entire western Balkan region - integrated into the Union, their financial support has been declining. In 2001, the Union's assistance amounted to €336 million, but the levels committed for 2004-06 have fallen to €55-60m per year. The reductions are despite recorded increases in poverty levels. A new World Bank study calculates that 15% of its population have to eke out an existence on as little as €0.93 a day - the indicator for "extreme poverty" - while some 37% have to make do on €1.44. In its 2002 annual report, the bank stated that 12% lived in extreme hardship. Factors cited by the bank in its latest paper for the increasing social problems include a 70% slip in international aid to Kosovo in 2000-03 and the absence of economic development. Up to 60% of the workforce is without a job or prospects of acquiring one. The lack of hope seems to provide an environment for extremists to flourish. As a result, they can find recruits willing to inflict terror on ethnic Serb communities - as occurred in March - as well as on the Ashkali community, the ethnic group of Indian descent. After leading a successful peacekeeping operation in Macedonia, the EU is hoping to demonstrate further proof that it has the wherewithal to bring stability to the Balkans when it takes over the military command for NATO's SFOR force in Bosnia at the end of this year. In Kosovo, meanwhile, there has been a considerable reduction in the number of international peacekeepers deployed - from 45,000 to 17,500 - over the past two years. A paper, issued last week, by the Bertelsmann Foundation suggests Europe could struggle in coping with a resurgence of serious violence in the region. The prospect that the UK, described by the German think-tank as the owner of "Europe's most capable army", is about to increase the number of its troops in Iraq will put strains on its ability to honour commitments to the Balkans. An effective peacekeeping force, it reckons, would need to have ten troops for every 1,000 inhabitants in the trouble spot. In Kosovo, the proportion of troops is roughly 12.5 to every 1,000 locals, while in Bosnia it is 3.6 per 1,000. Back in mid-2002, the UN's then special envoy to Kosovo Michael Steiner devised a policy called "standards before status". This meant that Kosovo would have to cultivate sufficient respect for democracy and the rule of law before its ultimate status could be determined. The International Crisis Group has criticized this approach as only "half a policy". Shortly before his resignation, Holkeri said he had "tried to find a new slogan [because] our biggest enemy is the status quo". One idea that was floated by the Democratic Party of Kosovo's leader Hashim Thaci recently is that a model similar to the 2001 Ohrid Agreement in Macedonia, designed to give greater political and social rights to the ethnic Albanian minority, could be applied to Kosovo. Yet Thaci's suggestion has been flatly rejected by other Kosovar parties. The International Crisis Group has warned that Kosovo has the potential to become Europe's West Bank and a paper published in May 2004 by Germany's Bertelsmann Foundation suggests Europe could struggle to cope with a resurgence of serious violence in the region. |
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| Countries / Regions | Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Slovenia |
