Juncker for Commission chief? It’s an offer he wouldn’t refuse

By Dana Spinant and David Cronin

Date: 13/05/04

Jean-Claude Juncker would accept an offer to become the next European Commission president if asked by all his counterparts and if there was no agreement on another candidate, according to a source close to Luxembourg's premier.

Juncker was the main contender to replace Romano Prodi until he recently ruled himself out by saying that he made a promise to his electorate to remain the Grand Duchy's prime minister after its 13 June general election.

But he could break this promise if it appeared the EU's government leaders would have problems in agreeing on a candidate for the job: "If the European Council had difficulties in reaching an agreement and they saw him as a compromise, plan B candidate, he could do it," the source said.

"In this case, it could be said that he did not break his promise, as he wasn't a candidate for the job, but that he accepted it in the interest of Europe."

Such a scenario would be a repeat of the 1995 situation, when Jacques Santer, also premier of Luxembourg, was appointed Commission president after the main candidate, Jean-Luc Dehaene of Belgium, was opposed by the then British premier John Major.

"A Santer scenario would be acceptable for Juncker," the source said.

One senior politician with the European People's Party - of which Juncker's party is a member - echoed this view, by saying that the prime minister of Luxembourg would find it difficult to refuse such a proposal, if it had the unanimous backing of EU heads of state and government.

A senior French diplomat said Paris supports Juncker but commented he understands the Luxembourger "cannot confirm any interest in the job until he is being made an official offer".

"Unless he is sure of the support of all his counterparts, he cannot risk being rejected, like Dehaene, and then go back home," he said.

"He can never be sure, the British government always has a problem in accepting candidates from the Benelux states as they are seen to be too federalist."

The search for a new Commission president has reached fever pitch, as Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern is currently on a marathon tour of EU capitals to take soundings on who Europe's leaders wish to see succeed Romano Prodi. Ahern is presenting the Union's government leaders with a short-list of candidates, which includes Chris Patten, external relations commissioner, António Vitorino, commissioner for justice and home affairs, Pat Cox, outgoing president of the European Parliament, Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Danish premier, and former Finnish prime minister Paavo Lipponen.

But French government sources say Cox, Patten and Rasmussen have little chance of winning support in their bids to replace Prodi, as their countries are outside some key EU projects.

"Candidates from countries with opt-outs should not get this job," one government official said. "The areas in which they decided not to participate are the main projects for the EU in the future, so we will object to this," he said.

The UK, Denmark and Sweden have decided not to accept the euro. Britain and Ireland also remain outside the Schengen zone under which border controls between member states are abolished.