Juncker and Blair are polls apart on Europe

Date: 30/06/05

A completely different breed of leader is about to take over the helm of the European Council from Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker. But will Tony Blair shrug off the EU constitution during his presidency? Dana Spinant reports

If, on Sunday 10 July, the citizens of Luxembourg reject the EU constitution, Tony Blair, the British prime minister, who takes over the chairmanship of the European Council on 1 July, is most unlikely to react to the news from that new symbolic seat of Brussels's power which is the Berlaymont.

His predecessor at the helm of the EU, Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg, did come to Brussels to give a joint reaction with the presidents of the European Commission and the European Parliament to the French and Dutch referenda of 29 May and 1 June.

But Blair would be more likely speak to the world through the BBC or to reporters gathered in front of 10 Downing Street.

In addition to a difference of style, proximity to Brussels and availability (Juncker embarked on his six-month presidency as a full-time job), the two leaders also have different views about the future of the EU constitution. Blair is believed to consider it dead, following its rejection in two member states. He decided it was not even worth holding a referendum on the constitution in the UK and shelved the preparatory legislation.

Juncker, on the other hand, is adamant that, while the will of the people has to be respected, the EU constitution is not dead and leaders should persuade citizens that it is the best document all member states can agree on.

Blair is unlikely to make a media or political drama out of the Luxembourg referendum result. Officials predict that not much will happen in the next six months concerning the EU constitution.

"Blair is among the ones believing that the EU constitution failed mainly because of the grim economic situation in Europe," says one official from one of the founding member states. "For him, member states will have to concentrate on the economy first. The debate on the future of the EU starts with the economy."

At the 16-17 June EU summit, heads of state and government agreed to introduce a "period of reflection" during which the EU constitution and the general direction of the EU would be discussed intensely at all levels of society. During the reflection phase, those who feared they would encounter problems in securing their citizens' agreement should postpone the vote on the constitution.

The crucial question is whether there will be a genuine reflection and debate on the future of the EU or whether this reflection time will simply be used as a way of either letting voters' discontent fade away or letting the constitution die slowly.

Blair did not reveal any plans on the reflection period in his speech before the Parliament on 23 June. He only spoke of the need "to conduct this debate about the future of Europe in an open, inclusive way, giving our own views strongly but fully respectful of the views of others".

Only two heads of state or government have yet launched ideas about how the reflection should be organised. French President Jacques Chirac called for a special EU summit to discuss the constitution and Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende called for a special conference on subsidiarity. This would debate what the EU should do and what should be left to national or regional authorities.

British officials say it is not clear yet how the reflection will be organised. One says: "It is possible that Blair will invite his colleagues for an informal meeting to discuss what to do, how to make this reflection effective and to take people's views on board. But at this stage, nothing is envisaged."

Another UK official says that gathering the leaders for a brainstorming, as Chirac suggested, is not the way to tackle it. "Maybe nothing should be done at the highest level; maybe we should just let the debate start at grassroots level and encourage local communities to start the debate," he says.

"We should avoid giving the impression that this reflection period means that the leaders need more time to reflect. Surely they do, but we should do something to involve the people."

He adds: "The best way to involve the people is something that should not be decided by us or by any other EU presidency. Every country and region should find the best way to do it."

An official from one of the six founding member states says there is a risk that Blair, not so keen to put this constitution to his own citizens, "will deviate attention to other matters, pushing ratification of the constitution off the agenda".

Whatever Blair's intentions, the mood under which the reflection period starts depends to a great extent on the result of the vote in Luxembourg. A third 'No' in a row, from a third founding EU member, could deal a fatal blow to the constitution. Then, the reflection would likely pave the way to its burial. The most recent opinion polls showed the 'No' side gaining ground (45% at the beginning of June, from 24% in October 2004).

If it is a 'Yes', the reflection period would start under better auspices and would halt a contagious negative trend, with opinion polls showing that following the French and the Dutch vote, the 'No' side was gaining the upper hand in all member states where votes were to be held. If the Luxembourgers back the EU constitution, then against all odds, Blair will be forced to offer praise on 10 July to Juncker, the man with whom he has traded thinly veiled insults over the past fortnight.

Analysis feature comparing the Luxembourg Presidency of the Council during the first half of 2005, chaired by Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, to the UK's chairmanship during the second half of the year, headed by Prime Minister Tony Blair. At the June 2005 European Council leaders had agreed to introduce a 'period of reflection' during which the EU constitution and the general direction of the EU would be discussed intensely at all levels of society.