Jobless population and employment flows in recession

Abstract:

This paper explores the characteristics and dynamics of the jobless population defined via the NEET concept (population not in education, employment, or training) adjusted to include the entire working-age population and exclude the disabled and retired.

Estimation of the total potential labour force, the sum of the NEET and employed population, shows that Croatia has the lowest workforce potential in the EU. Detailed exploration of the Croatian NEET adult population in 2008 and 2011 indicates notable changes in its size and composition during the recession.

Single, prime-age male NEETs, with good social relations, are found to have the best chances of finding a job. Their job prospects decrease with household income, especially if it comes from the hidden economy, while social transfers exert negative but statistically insignificant effects.