Italy and Iraq. Election bloops

Date: 05/11/05

Silvio Berlusconi tries to please two audiences at once

THANKS to pre-recorded television, politicians can now have the out-of-body experience of being in two places simultaneously. Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, was this week not just in two places at once - he also managed to say contradictory things.

Standing with President George Bush in the White House, he spoke proudly of being "side by side with our American ally in broadening the borders of democracy and freedom", standard neo-conservative language justifying the invasion of Iraq. But back in Italy, he was simultaneously telling an interviewer that he had "never been convinced war was the best way to make a country democratic", precisely the argument against the war used two years ago by France and Germany.

Mr Berlusconi said that he had tried "many times" to dissuade Mr Bush and had even enlisted the good offices of Libya's leader, Muammar Qaddafi, to act as a mediator. These claims stupefied the opposition, which has always seen Mr Berlusconi as a poodle of Washington's. Mr Berlusconi's supporters were able nevertheless to point to a trail of comments that he had made hinting at reservations over the invasion. Perhaps he set aside such misgivings for the sake of retaining influence with the Americans. But if that were the case, why would he reveal his doubts now in such a high-profile way, just as he left for Washington (extracts from the television interview were released in advance)?

The cynical answer is that Mr Berlusconi faces an election next April and knows that his support for America's foreign policy is unpopular. But that may not be the whole story.

Until his latest swerve, Italy was in the same position as Spain before its election in March 2004, with an opposition committed to withdrawing troops from Iraq. That situation may have led to al-Qaeda's bombings of Madrid's trains on March 11th 2004, killing 191 people and perhaps helping to swing the election in favour of the Socialists. By shifting his position now, Mr Berlusconi has gone some way to mitigating the risk of such an attack, which could blow his chances of re-election. It remains to be seen whether he might go even further by withdrawing Italy's contingent in Iraq, the third-largest after America's and Britain's.

There is another possible explanation for Mr Berlusconi's behaviour: that he is trying to avoid the backwash from the Plame affair in America. The bogus documents purporting to show that Iraq was trying to buy yellow-cake uranium were allegedly forged in Italy. Claims have been made that the Italian intelligence services forwarded them to the Americans and the British, knowing them to be misleading. The theory is that Italy's spymasters wanted to ingratiate themselves with Mr Berlusconi who, in turn, wanted to ingratiate himself with Mr Bush. But Mr Berlusconi can now argue that, since he never wanted a war, there was no reason for him to forward intelligence - still less bogus intelligence - aimed at justifying one.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi tries to please two audiences at once.