Italy and Iraq: Arrivederci?

The Italians plan to quit Iraq

SILVIO BERLUSCONI provided a reminder this week that there are limits to the support that even the most pro-American of Europeans can give George Bush in Iraq. On March 15th he announced on television that Italy would start withdrawing its 3,300 soldiers in September. But, after a phone conversation with Mr Bush, Mr Berlusconi backtracked a day later: the September date was merely a “hope”, he said. Nevertheless, this was the latest sign that more governments are finding involvement in Iraq hard to handle: a first detachment of Dutch troops arrived back on March 14th, Ukraine began a withdrawal on March 15th, and Poland has already cut its contingent by almost a third.

Few people gave America more enthusiastic backing in Iraq than Mr Berlusconi. Italy contributed more soldiers than any European country bar Britain. Like Britain's Tony Blair, however, Mr Berlusconi has a general election to win. Italy's must be held by next spring. Both men have defied public opinion on their involvement in Iraq. Polls suggest that some 70% of Italians want their troops out. Yet crucially, and quite unlike Mr Blair, Italy's prime minister has to fight an opposition committed to withdrawal.

By shifting now, Mr Berlusconi has given himself time to get the last soldier out before the election campaign. He has also gained some ground for the next test of public opinion, when Italian voters elect governors in 14 of the 20 regions in early April. Many Italians, not only on the left, are still seething over the shooting earlier this month by American troops of a senior intelligence officer soon after he had helped to free an Italian hostage.

Mr Berlusconi was careful to leave himself room for manoeuvre, even before his talk with Mr Bush. He said the phase-out would be co-ordinated with Italy's allies. It is possible that Italy could find a way of following the lead of countries such as Poland and the Netherlands, which have withdrawn troops amid much ballyhoo, but then quietly returned many of them as “instructors”.

It was also clear that the prime minister had not consulted his ministers before his television announcement. Earlier the same day, his deputy (also the foreign minister), Gianfranco Fini, was quoted in Le Point, a French magazine, saying that the government “had no reason to withdraw the Italian troops in Iraq”. The defence minister, Antonio Martino, had been giving out a similar message.

Some advisers might also have liked a chance to warn Mr Berlusconi of the risk of seeming to follow the opposition's lead. But instead of ramming home the message that he had done just that, opposition leaders muddied it with complaints that the announcement should have been made in parliament. It remains to be seen whether the prime minister's later backtracking will do him more harm than good.

Italy's Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, wants to withdraw his country's troops from Iraq.

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