Italian politics after Nasiriya: The opposition finds its man

Date: 15/11/03

Silvio Berlusconi may be vulnerable to a rejuvenated Romano Prodi

THE suicide bombing of a carabinieri headquarters at Nasiriya in Iraq has stunned Italy. Twelve paramilitary policemen and four soldiers died, along with two Italian civilians, in Italy's worst single military loss since the second world war. Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister, requested a political truce while the grieving continued. For as long as it lasts, he will be the main political beneficiary. But he may well then suffer an “Iraq effect” not unlike the one plaguing Britain's Tony Blair. Unlike Britain, Italy did not contribute troops to the war; but Mr Berlusconi strongly backed America's policy and was eager to contribute to the post-war reconstruction effort. Now the body-bags are returning to a country whose public has been far more solidly opposed to military involvement than Britain's.

Opposition politicians have been audibly grinding their teeth in their eagerness to capitalise on Mr Berlusconi's discomfort. They are more cocky now that they seem to have found the leader they have lacked since the centre-right's victory two years ago. A document issued this week, in Italian, by Romano Prodi, the president of the European Commission, was universally seen in Italy as a draft manifesto suggesting that he might contest next June's European elections as leader of the centre-left. If he did, Italy's role in the world might be at the centre of the debate.

Mr Prodi's document, entitled “Europe: the dream; the choices”, depicts a peace-oriented foreign policy as inherently European and deplores the emergence of America as lone superpower. Distinctly more left than centre in tone, it also contains good green intentions, a commitment to a minimum wage and a hint that he might reverse the trend towards reduced state involvement in the economy.

Mr Prodi may be seen in Brussels as a second-rate president, but at home his stint as the European Union's most public figure has given him an air of authority that he could exploit to the full in campaigning. And if he succeeds in giving Mr Berlusconi a bloody nose in June, he could give him another at the general election due before 2006. After all, he has already done it once, in 1996.

A commission spokesman flatly denies that Mr Prodi might step down before his term of office runs out in October 2004. But everything suggests that Mr Prodi has indeed decided to fight Mr Berlusconi again, if not next June, then at the general election. And the weapons he will use are curiously similar to Mr Berlusconi's.

One thing that propelled the media tycoon to power in 1994 was the impression he gave of being above day-to-day politics. He announced his decision to stand in a video recorded in his luxurious study and graciously donated to television channels for transmission. By making his first moves from distant Brussels, Mr Prodi has achieved something of the same detached effect. Then, in 2001, Mr Berlusconi led a highly personal campaign. His candidates were banned from putting their faces on posters: only pictures of the eternally tanned and smiling leader would do. The less charismatic Mr Prodi is going in the same direction: the word is that his grouping may be called the “pro-Prodi list”.

But should Mr Prodi, in his present job, be intervening so blatantly in Italian politics at all? The European Parliament's president, Pat Cox, has already asked for an explanation. Last week, Mr Prodi publicly clashed with Mr Berlusconi, who holds the EU presidency, for defending Russia's Vladimir Putin at the EU-Russia summit over Chechnya and the Yukos affair. If Mr Prodi emerges as the Italian prime minister's rival at home, his motives in such rows are bound to be questioned.

And what if he is forced to act sooner than he expects? Mr Berlusconi has problems in his own coalition, notably with the Northern League. Some on the centre- left think he may call a snap election next year. If Mr Prodi jumped ship early from Brussels, he might lose the aura of Euro-credibility that is his greatest asset in Italian eyes. That might be incentive enough for his rival to advance the elections.

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