It is the eyes and not the size that matter: The real and the perceived size of immigrant populations and anto-immigrant prejudice in Western Europe

The number of immigrants to Western Europe has been increasing, with immigration the subject of much controversy in contemporary Europe. In this article, we investigate the relationship between the size of the immigrant population, how natives perceive this size, and their anti-immigrant attitudes. We use data from the 2002/2003 European Social Survey covering 17 Western European countries, and we find that as a rule Western Europeans think that the immigrant population in their country is much larger than it actually is. The perceived size of an immigrant population has an impact on anti-immigrant prejudices, but the real size does not. Like many authors before us, we find that education reduces prejudice. However, we also find that around 10 percent of the total effect of education is a result of educated individuals' more accurate views about size of immigrant populations. In other words, the effect of education on prejudice is in part mediated by size perceptions.