Is Turkey heading for the rocks?

Date: 16/03/06

The diplomacy of regret is stalking the corridors of Brussels - voices whisper that we should never have let them in. 'They' are the Greek Cypriots. And the regret is two-fold. First at having brought inside the EU the intractable problem of the divided island of Cyprus - its northern part not subject to the EU's acquis, home to 30,000 Turkish troops, and unable to trade directly with the EU.

But the deepest regret is a forward-looking one: having just launched membership negotiations with Turkey, Europe's diplomats fear the talks could collapse by the end of 2006 in arguments over Cyprus.

As yet these fears are not openly admitted. The public line is that all is well. Turkey's reforms are continuing - if rather slowly and with particular concerns over freedom of expression. The screening process is well under way. And negotiations will start soon on the science and research chapter, with education to follow.

But these chapters have been carefully chosen - to avoid touching on customs union issues. Turkey signed the so-called Ankara Protocol last July to extend its existing customs union agreement to EU25, while stating that this was not "any form of recognition of the Republic of Cyprus". Although there is now trade between Turkey and Cyprus, Turkey's airports and ports remain closed to Cypriot planes and shipping.

Turkey's ambassador to the EU, Volkan Bozkir, argues that "for the time being the political circumstances do not allow Turkey to open ports" and that "Turkey thinks it [ports] is not part of customs union implementation". Meanwhile Greek Cypriot permanent representative Nicos Emiliou says he "cannot imagine that any government could survive in Cyprus if it accepted opening of customs union chapters unless Turkey complied with its obligations".

Which means that by the autumn, EU negotiators may have run out of 'soft' chapters to open and so risk facing a series of Greek Cypriot vetoes blocking any chapter openings that touch on free movement, customs union, or transport. On top of this, the Commission must report this year on Turkey's implementation of the Ankara Protocol and its bilateral relations with member states. A report citing non-compliance may lead to calls by Cyprus for suspension of negotiations, though this would have to be agreed with unanimity. Emiliou says the report "will cause a lot of excitement later this year" and that the EU "is heading for a very great difficulty when the review exercise is undertaken".

The answer may seem simple - Turkey should open its ports. But with no prospect of a new peace deal for the island, its domestic politics may not allow that, not least since Turkish Cypriots voted 'Yes' to the UN peace plan in April 2004, while the Greek Cypriots voted 'No'. Last month, the Greek Cypriots finally stopped vetoing an aid deal for the north - worth EUR 139 million. But they refuse to countenance EU proposals to open ports and airports in northern Cyprus and so allow trade with the EU. Emiliou is categorical that "the direct trade regulation for us is completely unacceptable".

With Cyprus in the EU, Turkey has lost bargaining power. It must implement the customs union agreement as part of negotiations, but Cyprus is not obliged to agree any peace deal. Efforts are under way to restart the UN peace process. But few expect a new Cyprus peace deal while hard-liner Tassos Papadopoulos is president of the republic.

So the EU is faced with a looming problem of its own making. By bringing in a divided Cyprus it has made a peace deal much less likely. And a year that started with the cartoons furore and demonstrations by Muslims round the globe could end with the breakdown of talks between the EU and Turkey - leaving perhaps the most important part of the EU's strategic foreign policy in tatters. The dilemma is clear - the solution is not. And the clock is ticking.

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• Kirsty Hughes is an analyst based in London.

Major analysis feature in which the author suggests that accession negotiations with Turkey, opened on 3 October 2005 and currently in the screening phase, could collapse by the end of 2006 in arguments over Cyprus.

European Commission: DG Enlargement: Turkish Cypriot Community http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/turkish_cypriot_community/index_en.htm

European Commission: DG Enlargement: Candidate countries: Turkey https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/countries/detailed-country-information/turkey_en

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