Is This the Future of Europe? Opportunities and Risks for Poland in a Union of Insiders and Outsiders

Poland risks falling into the political equivalent of the middle-income trap: having charted a remarkable rise within the EU, it may stagnate just before achieving lead status. The problem is clear: divisions within the Union that once favoured Poland, and diminished the gap between eastern and western members, may now turn against it. In the first comprehensive English-language analysis of the strategic opportunities and risks facing member states across a range of policy areas, PISM analysts ask: can Warsaw exploit Europe's new divisions and complete its own 'arrested accession'? This collection of essays identifies opportunities for Poland to act as a mediator between coalitions of antagonistic member states (energy policy; EU institutions; budget), to harness 'differentiated' integration and enlargement (Eurozone; ENP; EU enlargement), and to adapt to the emergence of clusters of member states (External Action Service; Visegrad cooperation; public opinion).