Is there a European electorate and what does it look like? Evidence from electoral volatility measures, 1976–2004

Abstract:

Is the EU party system a reflection of national electorates or a distinct arena based on specific alignments arising from the European integration process? The main indicators used to test for distinctive dimensions in European Parliament elections are indices of electoral volatility comparing national and European elections. Data include national elections over the last 30 years and European elections from 1979 until 2004 for all Member States. Evidence shows persistently overlapping electoral behaviour due to the predominance in the two ‘orders’ of elections of the left-right dimension. The article argues that this similarity reveals a multi-level European party system. In historical comparison, it is shown that, despite different conditions of social and political mobilisation, the left-right alignment plays a similarly important integrating role in the ‘Europeanisation’ of electorates today as it played in earlier processes of ‘nationalisation’.