Is the EU losing its will to go on?

Date: 27/04/06

The European Union has been caught out by its own rhetoric.

The process of enlarging the EU, particularly taking in ten members in 2004, has been hailed as an all-round success story and an example of the Union's 'soft power', its ability to transform societies without using military force. EU politicians queue up to trumpet how expanding the EU has boosted the Union's economic power, created the largest market in the world and healed the scars of political division from the end of Second World War.

While all of these things may be true, the problem is that the EU does not have the confidence to repeat this success story.

Barely two years after the biggest expansion in the Union's history, EU governments have started airing concerns about admitting new members after Romania and Bulgaria join. Earlier speculation that Croatia, one of the nations that emerged from the break-up of Yugoslavia, might catch up with Romania and Bulgaria and join at the same time now seems hopelessly naive.

Opposition to Turkey's full membership has almost become a badge of honour for some centre-right politicians including German Christian Democrats and French Presidential hopeful Nicolas Sarkozy.

But why is the EU so unwilling to follow the arguments which it has used in the past about the perspective of EU membership being a force for economic and democratic transition?

The rejection by Dutch and French voters of the EU constitution has played a large part in modifying political leaders' thinking. There is an assumption that the rejection of the text was a protest against expansion, although this is not borne out by analysis of the reasons why people voted 'No'. In the case of France, only 6% cited opposition to Turkey's membership as motivation for their 'No' vote while general opposition to further expansion was even lower at 3%. The main reasons given were the effect the constitution would have on employment and France's economic situation. For Dutch voters, enlargement was a factor for 6% of those who rejected the constitution with Turkey's membership an issue for 3%. The main reasons in the Netherlands were a lack of information about the text (32%) and fears of a loss of national sovereignty (19%).

Even in the European Parliament, traditionally a very strong supporter of taking in new members, reluctance is growing as shown by the adoption of the report by German centre-right MEP Elmar Brok, with its stress on whether the Union has the capacity to 'absorb' further members. The mood in Parliament reflects a range of concerns among the centre-right, including admitting a Muslim country to the EU and fears

that further enlargement would increase public hostility to attempts to get the constitution adopted in some form.

As Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn points out (see below), the EU has always been able to prepare for waves of enlargement if it has had the political will to do so. The Union looks like honouring its promises to Romania and Bulgaria. But other aspiring members, with the exception of Croatia, may find that the EU lacks the will to extend to them the same benefits.

Major analysis feature in which the author asks why the EU was so unwilling to follow the arguments which it had used in the past about the perspective of EU membership being a force for economic and democratic transition?