Is the double majority really double? The second round in the debate of the voting rules in the EU Constitutional Treaty

The voting rules in the Council of the EU have been under constant negotiation over the past 15 years, in the light of successive enlargements and ending with the Nice Treaty and the Constitutional Treaty. The latter replaced the traditional system of weighted votes, with a double majority of 55% of member states, representing 65% of the population. The discussion should be seen mainly in the perspective of the power balance between large and small states in the enlarged Union.

This paper aims to explain the effects of the double majority with cruder but more realistic methods than voting power calculations, and by putting them into their political context. It shows that the heavy criticism of the Nice rules for their complexity and ineffectiveness is largely exaggerated. In the double majority under the Constitutional Treaty the balance of power between member states would in practice be determined entirely by the size of their populations. The state leg would hardly ever play a role, irrespective of the thresholds for population or states. The result is a substantial change in the balance between member states. This was the most controversial issue in the negotiations about the Constitutional Treaty, but there has been little discussion about this after it was signed. Now that the treaties are to be renegotiated the matter arises again, and Poland and possibly the Czech Republic will make proposals for a different model. Therefore, the paper also examines a few other options, if there should be a substantial discussion of the matter, and the prospects that they could bring about a compromise