Ireland: Teflon no more

Date: 18/10/03

Bertie Ahern loses popularity

THE Irish taoiseach (prime minister), Bertie Ahern, is shedding some of his “non-stick” coating. Public satisfaction with his centre-right coalition government has collapsed since it won a second term in May last year. Last weekend, at the annual conference of his Fianna Fail party in Killarney, he set out to recover his fabled “man of the people” image.

Mr Ahern's sharp fall in the opinion polls echoes the experience of his British counterpart, Tony Blair, and for rather similar reasons: a loss of public trust and a failure to deliver public-service reforms. Mr Ahern may have an even harder time reversing his low ratings. Opinion polls show only 36% of respondents as satisfied with his performance, compared with 70% before his re-election last year. His party is at a 20-year low in the polls.

Some disenchantment with the government was inevitable. The economy has turned sharply downwards after the heady 1996-2001 period, when it grew by 8% a year. Last year, it barely expanded at all; and it is forecast to grow by only 1.5% in 2003. But Mr Ahern's woes also reflect rising disapproval over what has become an increasingly accident-prone government.

One example is the government's handling of cases of victims of childhood sexual abuse who had been in state-supervised residential institutions run by Catholic orders. Last month Mary Laffoy, a judge chairing a commission of inquiry into this matter, resigned. She claimed that the government had impeded the commission's investigations.

Later in September, the Comptroller and Auditor General's office, a parliamentary watchdog, gave warning that taxpayers could face €1 billion ($1.2 billion) in compensation to victims of abuse. The government had struck a deal with the religious orders to limit their liability. It capped the orders' share of the compensation costs at €128m, leaving the taxpayer facing unlimited liability for the rest.

The government has suffered two further embarrassments. A judge, Alan Mahon, whom it had recently appointed as chairman of a tribunal examining allegations of planning corruption, was himself uncovered as a tax defaulter, albeit a decade ago. And the Revenue Commissioners also named a government backbencher as a tax cheat.

As far as the public is concerned, too much was promised by Mr Ahern before the May 2002 election, and too little has changed since, fuelling dissatisfaction. A “world-class health service” was pledged, for example. And yet 17 months later there are still queues for hospital beds.

Mr Ahern sought to steady nerves at the Fianna Fail conference. Next June the party faces European and local elections. He insisted that his government was not for turning, and he promised to think long term. In the short term that may not save the party from an electoral pasting next year. But by 2007, when the next general election looms, economic recovery may have lifted his popularity. The Teflon taoiseach may have lost his moniker - but he is not quite down and out yet.

The Irish taoiseach (Prime Minister), Bertie Ahern, is losing popularity in Ireland - for a range of reasons.

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