Ireland chooses between Europhiles

Date: 05/06/1997

SO FAR, it has all been rather dull. No eye-catching advertisements, no weighty debates - just head-and-shoulder posters and some noisy bickering.

Ireland's election campaign kicked off almost two weeks ago amid great fanfare, ending two years of more or less harmonious rule by a Fine Gael-led centre-left coalition.

Prime Minister John Bruton, confident that his government would benefit from Ireland's thriving economy and the financial scandals surrounding its rivals, called an early election.

But it is a gamble which could backfire.

“At the time, it seemed a good idea,” says Brendan Walsh, a politics professor at University College Dublin. “But as everyone knows, a lot can change in a matter of weeks.”

A judicial investigation into allegations that Charles Haughey, the former boss of Fianna Fáil, received payments from supermarket mogul Ben Dunne, has so far failed to damage the main opposition party.

And while Fine Gael has presided over a period of unprecedented prosperity - the Irish economy is growing at 7&percent; of gross domestic product, almost three times the European Union average, and public finances are comfortably within the targets set for economic and monetary union - there is no evidence to suggest that voters credit Bruton's coalition with Ireland's new-found status as the 'Celtic tiger'.

In fact, the government is lagging behind in the opinion polls, indicating that opposition challengers may yet snatch victory in what analysts predict will be one of the most closely fought election battles since the state was founded.

Ireland has been ruled by coalition governments ever since Fianna Fáil, its largest political party, split in two in 1985, making single-party government almost impossible under the country's system of proportional representation.

To date, political parties have campaigned on separate platforms, showing a chameleon-like ability to mix and mould into different groupings after polling day.

Now, for the first time, voters are faced with a clear choice of coalition alternatives.

The current Fine Gael-led 'rainbow' government is swayed to the left by its Labour and Democratic Left partners. The alternative, led by the populist Fianna Fáil party and its leader Bertie Ahern, will be influenced by the right-wing economic policies of the Progressive Democrats.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael draw their identity not from any alignment with social or economic classes, but from divisions rent by the civil war in the 1920s. They have never governed together.

While both have waged electoral war on each other over the past two weeks, the ideological differences between them are in fact slight - a question of shade and not colour.

“It will make little difference who wins,” says Padhraic Garvey, an economist at Riada Stockbrokers in Dublin. “It is six of one and half a dozen of the other.”

Greens aside, there is a resounding consensus among the parties on all of the big issues.

On Europe, they favour further integration and all the leaders are committed Europhiles, which is hardly surprising given the large annual cash transfers from EU to Irish coffers.

Ireland's desire to join the single currency from the start is therefore unlikely to be diluted even if power changes hands.

And, while the Progressive Democrats have expressed reservations about entering the euro-zone without Ireland's largest trading partner, the UK, the party's leader Mary Harney says that on balance she is in favour of participation.

They also agree on tax, with each party promising cuts of around 2.15 billion ecu, although the government's proposals would ease the burden on low to middle-income earners for the most

part while the opposition's would benefit higher-paid workers.

One point on which the parties diverge is the question of state assets, with the Progressive Democrats advocating their sale and the left-wing parties in the current government strongly opposing it.

On the whole, however, consensus reigns - hence the monotony of the campaign which has focused for the most part on local issues such as water charges and television licences, rather than lofty ones such as Europe.

Only Northern Ireland has (albeit predictably) produced a few sparks.

It shot to top of the agenda within days when Ahern stepped into a torrent of criticism for meeting Gerry Adams, the leader of the Irish Republican Army's political wing, Sinn Fein.

Government leaders, as well as Ahern's would-be partner in government Harney, have refused to meet Adams until he can offer the prospect of a new IRA cease-fire.

Northern Ireland resurfaced at the weekend, this time with Labour leader Dick Spring plunging himself into controversy by saying a vote for Sinn Fein was a vote for peace - the opposite view to that of his running mate Bruton.

Late last week, opinion polls in the Dublin area, which accounts for a third of the electorate, gave the Fianna Fáil /Progressive Democrat alliance a four-percentage-point lead over the government parties.

That is down from the six-point gap registered a week earlier, largely because of a controversial 'stay at home' scheme for unmarried mothers which Harney said she would introduce on gaining office. Plans to slash 25,000 jobs in the public sector have not helped either.

Of those surveyed, 46&percent; said they would vote for the centre-right coalition, while 42&percent; said they would back the government. But more than 15&percent; said they were undecided and only 40&percent; of first-time voters indicated they would cast a ballot, highlighting a growing disaffection with national politics.

Given that support for Fianna Fáil typically wanes in the run-up to an election, the difference between the two groupings could be as slim as one to two seats in the 166-strong parliament.

That could leave independents or small fringe groups such as the Green Party holding the balance of power.

Ireland's voting system of proportional representation means that voters can back more than one party in order of preference, a method which has produced narrow margins in the past.

The Green Party, which campaigns for “a better quality of life” and public cycle-ways, currently has the support of 4&percent; of the electorate.

Advocating policies radically different from those of the mainstream, the environment-friendly group says there should be a referendum on monetary union. It is unlikely to get its way on that point, though, even if it does end up controlling some of the levers of power. With one sitting member of parliament, the Green Party is fielding 26 candidates in the election.

Those fond of turning to history to find clues to the outcome of forthcoming elections point out that no incumbent Fine Gael-led government has been returned to power, and Fianna Fáil has never had to spend more than one term in opposition.