Iran’s nuclear programme. Are negotiations over?

Iran's ruling mullahs may have crossed a point of diplomatic no-return

IN THE saga of the West's efforts to prevent Iran from making a nuclear bomb, time just about ran out this week for an arrangement that might have satisfied all sides. The mullahs, who seem bent on acquiring technology which they insist would be for peaceful nuclear purposes only, summarily rejected as “insulting” a set of proposals from the three European countries (Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3) that have been negotiating, with American approval, on behalf of the European Union. Iran's new and ultra-conservative president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, reiterated his view that processing uranium was Iran's “right”.

Moreover, as a token of Iran's determination to press ahead with its nuclear plans, it symbolically broke the seals at a uranium plant in Isfahan where, among other places, it had promised to suspend its reprocessing activity while negotiations with the E3 were going on. As a result, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog, was feverishly trying to persuade Iran to think again.

But the die seemed cast. The IAEA's 35-country board held emergency meetings to decide whether to refer Iran's case to the UN Security Council, where, if the United States and the Europeans had their way, a resolution would be presented that would trigger punitive economic sanctions against Iran. It is likely but not certain that the agency's board will agree, in the next few weeks, to refer the case to the Security Council, though some non-aligned countries on the board, such as Malaysia and Brazil, sounded reluctant to do so.

More notably, however, Russia, which is building a nuclear plant for Iran but has agreed to ensure that the spent fuel that could be used for nefarious purposes will not kept by the Iranians, strongly criticised their decision. The swing vote, in the Security Council, might therefore be China, which has signed a number of big deals to buy Iranian oil and gas. Its ambassador to Austria, where the IAEA is based, appealed to Iran “to continue to apply the relevant confidence-building measures ” - -Chinese dip-speak for “don't do it”. It is conceivable, but still unlikely, that China would abstain in a sanctions-enabling vote in the Security Council.

The proposed E3 offer included trade incentives and security guarantees in return for an indefinite Iranian abstention from enriching uranium or separating plutonium as a prelude to creating a nuclear fuel cycle that could be used to make bombs as well as nuclear power. The deal would also have endorsed Iran's role in regional security, with Iraq and Afghanistan both acknowledged as countries in which Iran has a legitimate interest.

But Iran wants more than that. Surrounded by countries that play host to American forces (Iraq and Afghanistan) or which already have nuclear weapons of their own (Russia and Pakistan), the mullahs seem determined, come what may (UN economic sanctions or, conceivably, a bunker-busting strike by a nuclear-armed Israel, whose existence Iran refuses to accept), to join the club.