If Crimea Secedes: Consequences for Ukraine, Russia and Europe

Since 27 February, Crimea has been occupied by the Russian army. On 6 March, the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, dominated by pro-Russian politicians, decided in favour of the accession of the region to the Russian Federation. A referendum on 16 March is designed to confirm the legitimacy of this move. Russia, which is behind the actions of the Crimean separatists, will see its policy lead to a long-lasting crisis in Russian–Ukrainian relations. The European Union cannot accept Russia’s argument that Russians in Crimea have a right to self-determination, as it would open the way to further Russian territorial claims against neighbouring countries.