Hungary and EU membership. An unpersuasive referendum

Date: 19/04/03

Five out of six who voted said yes, but there weren't many of them

WHEN Hungary decided in January to hold its referendum on whether to join the European Union on April 12th, it looked like especially good news for advocates of EU enlargement. Hungary had been one of the ex-communist countries most eager to join the Union, and would be the first of eight central European candidates accepted by the EU to ask its voters to agree, ahead of the more sceptical Poles and Czechs.

In the event, Slovenia voted first - and gave a handsome yes. But Hungary's voters ended up sending a more mixed message than expected: an 84% yes vote, but in a dismal turnout of only 46%, despite much exhortation about the poll's importance. Now the politicians, who briefly tried to put up a united front just before the referendum, have fallen to squabbling about who was to blame.

In fact, both Peter Medgyessy's Socialist-led government and Fidesz, the big conservative opposition party, were at fault. The campaign by the government-backed European Information Foundation was dull and irrelevant. One poster showed a small businessman asking whether he would soon be able to open a cake shop in Vienna (answer, yes). Such questions were hardly at the top of voters' minds.

Meanwhile Fidesz had argued unenthusiastically that on balance it was best to join the EU. But until the last few days nearly everything else it said seemed to be aimed at pleasing its more nationalist supporters. In January, Viktor Orban, prime minister in the Fidesz government narrowly beaten a year ago, said that today's Eurocrats view Hungary much as its former Soviet masters used to.

Mr Medgyessy's friends say Fidesz was keen to avoid a strong yes, because that would have boosted him. No, says Fidesz, it was merely drawing attention to the drawbacks of joining the EU, such as the 100,000 jobs which (it had claimed) would be lost.

The heart of the argument is national identity. Of the ex-communist countries, Hungary has been the readiest to sell assets to foreigners. Though some people grumble, the prominence of foreign firms in the economy provokes remarkably little resentment. Yet many Hungarians are ready for a bit of flag-waving nationalism, and Fidesz in turn is ready to provide it. Fewer of its supporters than those of other parties turned out for the referendum, one poll has found; some of those who did worked for the no campaign.

The clear majority in the referendum suggests the Hungarians favour the EU, but the low turnout suggests last year's election result may be more revealing. It showed the country pretty evenly divided - and may mean that the Eurocrats will have to deal with a country that is at times relaxed and co-operative, at times prickly and nationalist.